The Point: Why New Jersey might shake up the Senate map

View this email in your browser October 16, 2018  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski Why New Jersey might shake up the Senate map On Tuesday, something interesting -- and important -- happened in the battle for the Senate. Senate Majority PAC, the chief super PAC of Senate Democrats, dumped $3 million worth of TV ads into the New Jersey Senate race, where Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez is facing a surprisingly strong challenge from wealthy Republican businessman Bob Hugin. The first ad from the super PAC seeks to link Hugin with President Donald Trump, who is not particularly popular in the Garden State. That the Senate Democratic establishment -- and make no mistake, that's what Senate Majority PAC is -- is spending money there is evidence of two things: 1. Menendez is being drastically outspent on TV by Hugin, who has dumped $24 million of his own money into the race, and Democrats are feeling pressure to level the playing field. (Another pressure point: Menendez is a former chairman of the Senate Democratic campaign committee, meaning that if he needs national donor money spent to save him, he gets national donor money spent to save him.) 2. Democrats are worried.  Most polling suggests Menendez is comfortably ahead. (The Real Clear Politics average lead for Menendez is 7 points.) But Menendez has lingering negatives from the trial he endured over accusations of corruption.  (The 11-week trial ended in a hung jury and the Department of Justice declined to retry him.) And New Jersey -- because it doesn't have its own media market and is instead covered by Philadelphia and New York City -- is a difficult state for politicians to become known in. All those facts, of course, don't change this underlying reality: Senate Democrats are spending $3 million in New Jersey that they can't spend in, say, Tennessee, where former Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, is trying to swim upstream against the conservative nature of the state. Or in Arizona, where Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is trying to win retiring Republican Sen. Jeff Flake's seat. The Point: There's lots and lots of money washing around Senate races, sure. But make no mistake that it is a finite sum. And money spent in New Jersey could mean an opportunity lost in a state where Democrats could be playing offense. -- Chris QUOTE OF THE DAY "I think the Democrats will eat him up. You know you have a lot of people running. I'm hearing names that are shockingly bad but they're nasty." -- President Donald Trump sizing up former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg as a potential presidential candidate (and the rest of the 2020 field). MONEY IN DA BANK President Donald Trump isn't on the ballot this November, but his fundraising numbers practically look like he is. Trump raised $18 million in just the last three months -- for an election that's still more than two years away. AND it brings Trump's campaign coffers to a staggering $106 million. As Chris writes, "That's a stunning -- and totally unprecedented -- amount of money for a sitting president to have collected less than two years into his first term." CHRIS' GOOD READS Politico's Tim Alberta talked to Steve Scalise about being shot at a congressional baseball practice -- and what he wants to do next Julian Castro tells Rolling Stone he's "likely" running for president in 2020 Dear Dave Brat: Don't cross the Fact Checker An AWESOME oral history of "Dallas" by Texas Monthly's Max Marshall  I love me some Kurt Vile MUSICAL INTERLUDE Chris h-a-t-e-s a cappella music. But, even he has to admit that this a capella cover of Bon Iver's "715 -- CrΣΣks" is damn good. INSTA POINT Today's topic: Trump has raised a crazy amount of money for a race that's more than two years away. 📈POLLERCOASTER 📉 Cruz-ing to victory? Sen. Ted Cruz is in the lead against his Democratic opponent Beto O'Rourke among likely voters, according to new polling from CNN and SRSS. Among likely voters: Cruz: 52% O'Rourke: 45% Recent polls have shown a similar trend with Cruz with a relative lead over his challenger.   The two candidates face off in a debate tonight. On Thursday, O'Rourke will participate in a CNN town hall -- Cruz dropped out of participating in the initially scheduled debate. BIG LEAGUE RALLY TIME Speaking of Ted Cruz... President Donald Trump is following through on his promise to hold a "major rally" for Cruz "in the biggest stadium in Texas we can find." Turns out the biggest stadium they found seats 8,000 (it's Houston's NRG Stadium, which, for the record, is not even Houston's largest stadium, much less Texas'.) Trump will rally with Cruz in Houston on October 22. THE POINT ON YOUTUBE! Melania Trump, explained. Sort of What is first lady Melania Trump's story? Chris investigates. TRUMP'S MIXED BAG Voters are relatively evenly split in their approval for President Donald Trump across a smattering of midterm battleground states (other than Arizona) according to new polling from CNN and SRSS.   📍Missouri: 51% approve, 45% disapprove 39% approve, 57% disapprove: Arizona 📍 📍 Texas: 49% approve, 48% disapprove 45% approve, 51% disapprove: Nevada 📍 📍Tennessee: 49% approve, 48% disapprove YOUR DAILY GIF From Brenna: "Just like Vice President Pence, I, too, strike a power pose before doing any public speaking. Also, let's talk about how good life would be if the dress code was always what it apparently is at the Sunbelt Agricultural Expo. ALMOST as good as sharing The Point with your friends." We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter. Sign up to get updates on your favorite CNN Original Series, special CNN news coverage and other newsletters.​ Share Tweet Forward Subscribe to The Point Copyright © 2018 Cable News Network, LP, LLLP. A WarnerMedia Company. All Rights Reserved., All rights reserved. You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Our mailing address is: Cable News Network, LP, LLLP. A WarnerMedia Company. All Rights Reserved. One CNN Center Atlanta, GA 30303 Add us to your address book unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences