| | | | ♀️ How women are turning the House blue ♀️ | | With the midterms now just 29 days away, a new poll of 69 of the most competitive House districts in the country suggests that the Republican majority is in deep, deep peril.
The survey, which was conducted by the Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, shows that 50% of voters in those 69 seats prefer a generic Democratic candidate for Congress while 46% would rather vote for a Republican.
That 4-point gap might not seem like much. After all, most national polls suggest the Democratic edge is wider! Except ... these same 69 districts favored the generic Republican over the generic Democrat by a 56%-41% margin back in 2016. That's a massive swing -- and it's indicative of just how much Democrats have made inroads in what was Trump country less than two years ago.
Of the 69 battleground seats that the Post polled, 63 are currently held by Republicans. Trump carried 48 of the 69 in 2016. Those two data points speak to just how tilted the playing field in the House truly is: Republicans are defending huge numbers of their own seats -- in areas where Trump did well in 2016 -- while Democrats have almost no problematic incumbents.
What's fueling this building Democratic wave? Women, according to the Post/Schar data. In the 69 battleground seats, women prefer the generic Democratic candidate over the Republican one by a 14-point margin. (Men choose the Republican candidate 51% to 46%).
Those numbers are consistent with what we've seen from female voters in recent months. President Donald Trump's approval rating was under 30% among women in a September CNN/SSRS poll, which, in an election that is shaping up to be a referendum on his first two years in office, is a big problem for Republicans.
And while it remains to be seen what the final political impact will be of the confirmation fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the fact that he made it to the bench even while facing several accusations of sexually inappropriate behavior from women seems likely to further fuel female voters' anger toward the current administration.
The Point: Democrats are a better-than-even-money bet to take back control of the House in less than a month. And they have female voters to thank for that fact.
-- Chris | | "In the past I've been reluctant to publicly voice my political opinions, but due to several events in my life and in the world in the past two years, I feel very differently about that now."
-- Singer and songwriter Taylor Swift, who in a lengthy Instagram post endorsed Tennessee Democratic candidates Phil Bredesen and Jim Cooper, and encouraged her millions of fans to register to vote. | | | Brett Kavanaugh will get some primetime pomp and circumstance thanks to President Donald Trump tonight.
Trump's newest Supreme Court justice was approved on a 50-48 vote in the Senate on Saturday, followed by a private swearing-in ceremony that night (pictured above). In that ceremony, Chief Justice John Roberts administered the constitutional oath and retired Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy administered the judicial oath.
Tonight, President Donald Trump will host a prime-time swearing-in ceremony for Kavanaugh.
Kavanaugh's confirmation came just in the nick of time -- the Supreme Court began its new term today.
There's a bevy of high-profile cases on the docket this term, too, including a challenge to the Affordable Care Act, cases on sanctuary cities, LGBT rights and the Trump administration's decision to phase out the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, according to CNN's Ariane De Vogue.
PLUS, a new CNN poll finds 51% of Americans oppose Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court -- and those numbers reveal a deep and growing partisan divide, according to CNN's Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta. Among Republicans, 89% back Kavanaugh (compared to 63% in early September) while 91% of Democrats oppose him (compared to 74% in early September). | | | Chris saw Gregory Alan Isakov open for Josh Ritter in DC a few years back and has loved him ever since. Now he has a new album, and it is, unsurprisingly, great. | | | Today's topic: Trump is making sure everyone knows how huge a win Kavanaugh's appointment is | | We're roughly a month out from Election Day, and today, voters in key states like California and Iowa can begin to head to the polls now thanks to early voting.
Lauren writes more on this in the new The Point midterms newsletter, out every Saturday -- but here's a noteworthy partisan takeaway:
"Early voting expert Michael McDonald, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida, tells me there's a pretty reliable partisan breakdown among who turns out for early voting. And when it comes to in-person early voting, Democrats tend to perform better, as opposed to Republicans, who tend to run up their numbers in turnout from mail-in ballots and same-day voting." | | President Donald Trump has finally sat down with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Rosenstein's job appears safe ... for now.
The long-awaited meeting, delayed by the confirmation fight around Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, happened aboard Air Force One today while Trump traveled to Orlando this afternoon.
Boarding the plane in Washington, Trump appeared to be quite congenial -- for now -- toward the deputy AG. "No I don't. No," Trump told reporters after he was asked if he has any plans to fire Rosenstein.
After landing, Trump described the 30-minute conversation as "great" to reporters waiting on the runway. Rosenstein ignited a firestorm a little more than a week ago following reporting that he had offered to wear a wire into the Oval Office and floated invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office. | | Communities in and around the Florida panhandle are bracing for this season's latest storm, Hurricane Michael.
The Category 1 storm is expected to reach Category 3 once it makes landfall Wednesday.
If the storm continues to strengthen as expected, it could be the first major hurricane to hit the Florida panhandle since 2005.
Already classes are being canceled at nearby schools like Florida State University, and Gov. Rick Scott has mobilized 1,250 National Guard troops to assist storm preparation. | | Bill and Hillary Clinton are taking flight after the midterms and into next year for a series of live events across the US and Canada, reports CNN's Dan Merica.
Billed as "An Evening with the Clintons," the first event will be at Las Vegas' Park Theatre on November 18. The tour heads to Toronto, Montreal and Sugar Land, Texas before the end of the year.
More, from event organizers: "Experience a one-of-a-kind conversation with two individuals who have helped shape our world and had a front seat to some of the most important moments in modern history. From the American presidency to the halls of the Senate and State Department to one of the United States' most controversial and unpredictable presidential elections, they provide a unique perspective on the past, and remarkable insight into where we go from here." | | | From Brenna: "President Trump stopping to talk to reporters on his way out of the White House was everyone who didn't have to work today waving off the Monday scaries. Clearly I was not one of those people. Were your friends woefully uninformed at brunch today? Catch them up before the next three-day weekend by sharing The Point." | | | | | | |
Post a Comment