| | | | | This is a special midterms-focused edition of The Point newsletter, which will publish every Saturday until Election Day. Let us know what you like or don't like about it at cillizza@cnn.com and lauren.dezenski@cnn.com. (Don't want a Saturday edition? That's fine! Opt out here, and we'll see you back here for your regularly scheduled Point newsletter on Monday night.) Thanks for reading! | | | 31 days out, midterms voting has already begun | | We're still a month out from the first Tuesday in November, but voters have already begun heading to the polls in several key states for early voting.
Which means that campaigns are already shifting to get-out-the-vote mode -- this week alone, early voting kicks off in these states:
Monday: California, Iowa
Tuesday: Montana, Nebraska
Wednesday: Arizona, Indiana, Ohio
Early voting, which is different from absentee voting, allows voters to cast their ballots in person during any period before Election Day, for any reason.
Driving intrigue -- and turnout -- are a number of high-profile Senate, House and gubernatorial races in early voting states. Case in point: CNN's key races like the House races in OH-01 (where GOP Rep. Steve Chabot faces a challenge from Democrat Aftab Pureval), CA-10, CA-25 (home to incumbent GOP Rep. Steve Knight and Democratic challenger Katie Hill), CA-39, plus the Senate races in Arizona and Indiana (where incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly is trying to hold onto his seat).
Early voting expert Michael McDonald, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida, tells me there's a pretty reliable partisan breakdown among who turns out for early voting. And when it comes to in-person early voting, Democrats tend to perform better, as opposed to Republicans, who tend to run up their numbers in turnout from mail-in ballots and same-day voting.
Not every state has the same early voting standards, so these aren't ironclad rules. But McDonald said his rule of thumb is: If it looks that Democrats are losing the early vote, it generally means they've lost the election.
Instead of a daylong sprint to get as many people to the polls, early voting means the get-out-the-vote process is now a marathon, lasting weeks rather than hours. It also allows campaigns to be more flexible with their campaign funds, identifying potential voters, turning them out, and then allocating funds to identify even more would-be voters.
Another state to watch: Nevada. As CNN's Eric Bradner writes, "My favorite early voting state, which doesn't come online until later this month, is Nevada, because everybody votes early there too and the data is so good that we'll know with near certainty the outcome of the races for governor, Senate and two House seats by the Monday afternoon before Election Day."
The Point: With scores of ballots already being cast in key states and key races throughout the country, the midterm elections aren't just coming up rapidly -- they're already here.
-- Lauren | | Hey there! I'm Lauren Dezenski, new co-author of The Point, plus the author behind this Saturday newsletter dedicated to the midterms. I caught up with Chris virtually this week (he was in the Big Apple) to pick his brain on what to watch for on the campaign trail:
Lauren Dezenski: We're now a month out from Election Day. Is there any particular race that you're keeping an eye on?
Chris Cillizza: I think the House still looks very good for Democrats – because of history, Trump's relatively low approval rating and the size of the playing field (big and tilted heavily toward Democratic pickup opportunities.) So I am a little more intrigued by the Senate and whether a Democratic majority is possible there.
To that end, I am watching the Tennessee race between Marsha Blackburn and Phil Bredesen. Given that President Donald Trump won Tennessee by 26 points (that's 17 points more than he won Texas by, just FYI) this race should be a no-brainer for Blackburn. But Bredesen is a popular, two-term governor who has shown more sticking power than a lot of people thought he could. If he wins, it's because of his unique political persona, yes, but also because Democratic voters in the state turned out in droves for him. And if he wins, then I think we are at least talking about the possibility of a Democratic takeover of the Senate on election night.
LD: This is something you and I riffed on earlier this week, but what do you make of would-be candidates like Elizabeth Warren making more public moves toward a potential presidential run in 2020? Does the pre-November 6 timing matter here?
CC: I think the 2020 Democratic field is going to be MASSIVE -- there are more than 30 candidates who have mentioned the possibility of running. When you have that large a field, you have to stake out your turf early. So Warren sent this signal -- to activists, to staffers who might want to work for her, to donors who are trying to decide which horse to back. The message was simple: I am very likely to be in this thing, so don't do anything until you hear from me.
My guess is you will see more major candidates announcing very soon after the November election. The base is absolutely raring to start this race against Trump and the earlier you get into these waters, the better from an organizing and fundraising perspective.
LD: President Trump has kept up a particularly active campaign schedule, with rallies around the country this week, next week and ostensibly up until Election Day. He's been telling his supporters to vote like his name is on the ballot – do you think that will actually happen?
CC: If history is any guide, probably not. The president's party has lost seats in all but three midterm elections since the Civil War: 1934, 1998 and 2002. The reason for that is twofold: 1) The "out" party is usually more energized to take back government than the "in" party is to keep it and 2) We as a country tend to like divided government, to hedge our bets a bit. So if we go one way in a presidential year, we tend to go the other way in a midterm.
There's no question then that Trump's opponents will be voting like his name is on the ballot – aiming to send a very clear (and negative) message about his first two years in office. Trump is trying like hell to encourage his supporters to do the same. Color me skeptical. | | 📈POLLERCOASTER: NEW JERSEY SENATE EDITION 📉 | | A handful of polls released this week show Sen. Bob Menendez, the New Jersey Democrat who just went through a particularly bruising corruption trial (which ended in a mistrial), may be more vulnerable to his Republican opponent Bob Hugin than previously understood.
Menendez's lead over Hugin appears slim among likely voters, according to polling: But not so fast, writes CNN's Harry Enten.
"Indeed, it's plausible that Menendez does lose. He is, however, strongly favored to win re-election, even at this point. There are two factors competing against each other: voter dislike for Menendez and voter dislike for President Donald Trump. The latter is likely to carry the day."
One other factor, via Chris: Incumbent senators in New Jersey often struggle to get known (and liked) statewide. Why? New Jersey doesn't have its own media market. Philly and New York City split the state. So voters often don't really know much about their federal politicians. And, because those two media markets are so big and expensive it costs politicians millions to introduce (or reintroduce) themselves to voters. | |  | We Found Bigfoot! – Dean Phillips for Congress MN-03 | | Dean Phillips, the Democrat running against Minnesota Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen, has employed a bit of fantasy (and an actor in a pretty realistic Bigfoot costume) in a new spot airing in MN-03's Minneapolis suburbs.
Titled "We Found Bigfoot!" the Phillips campaign criticizes Paulsen for allegedly being harder to track down than the elusive Bigfoot. | | 23 -- The net number of Republican-held House seats that Democrats need to win to take control of the House.
2 -- The net number of Senate seats Democrats need to win to control the Senate.
101,000 -- The number of negative Republican congressional ads run in September.
08/27/2020 -- The date of the 2020 Republican National Convention, scheduled to kick off in Charlotte, North Carolina, 691 days from now. | | It's Hillary Clinton!
On Monday, the former Democratic presidential nominee made her first public appearance of 2018 in a Chicago campaign stop for Illinois Democrat and gubernatorial candidate JB Pritzker and his LG candidate Juliana Stratton.
Clinton appeared at a roundtable with high school girls, as well as Pritzer and Stratton, and focused on the importance of leadership, CNN's Dan Merica reported.
Meanwhile, Clinton's favorable rating remains at an all time low -- Among US adults, only 38% rate her favorably, according to a recent Gallup poll. | | Sen. Kamala Harris is in the Buckeye State this weekend to deliver two keynote speeches -- one tonight for the NAACP Freedom Fund Dinner in Cincinnati and another on Sunday in Columbus to the Ohio Democratic Party's state dinner.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (who is not running for president today) will this weekend campaign with Josh Welle, a Democrat in NJ-04 running against incumbent Republican Rep. Chris Smith. President Donald Trump carried the district while Clinton won the state in 2016.
Celebrity attorney Michael Avenatti spoke at Ohio's Hamilton County Democratic Party fall reception on Friday night. Tickets to the event ranged from $1,500 to sponsor a table to $75 for young and senior Democrats.
New Jersey Democrat Sen. Cory Booker returns to Iowa this weekend for the first time since 2016.
President Donald Trump will hold MAGA rallies in Council Bluffs, Iowa on Monday, Erie, Pennsylvania on Wednesday, and Richmond, Kentucky on Saturday, according to his campaign. This will be Trump's 39th rally in Iowa, his 23rd in Pennsylvania, and third in Kentucky since June 2015.
Donald Trump Jr., the president's oldest son, will head to fundraisers in Charlotte, North Carolina and Athens, Georgia on Tuesday and attend a rally held by his father in Davie, Florida on Wednesday.
White House press secretary Sarah Sanders is headed to Iowa next Saturday for Gov. Kim Reynolds' second annual Harvest Festival (very different from another Harvest Festival). | | WHAT TO WATCH: TEXAS' 23RD DISTRICT | | Is there a Republican bright spot in southwest Texas?
Rep. Will Hurd is what CNN's Dan Merica describes as a resilient Republican. Hurd, who represents an increasingly diverse southwestern Texas district, has walked a fine line on immigration by pushing back against the Trump administration's policy of separating families at the border.
Hurd has sought to carve out an independent relationship with his constituents -- separate from the national party back in Washington.
He's up against Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, an Iraq war veteran and first-generation American, who has outraised Hurd 2 to 1 in the last quarter. But a recent New York Times poll shows Hurd comfortably ahead of Jones by 8%. | | | | | | |
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