The Point: Susan Collins just made Brett Kavanaugh a Supreme Court justice

October 5, 2018  by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Susan Collins just made Brett Kavanaugh a Supreme Court justice

Susan Collins ended the drama of Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court just before 4 p.m. Eastern time Friday.

That's the moment when, after a looooooong speech explaining her thought process, the Maine Republican senator announced she would support Kavanaugh in the final vote on Saturday.

"My fervent hope is that Brett Kavanaugh will work to lessen the divisions in the Supreme Court so we have far fewer 5-4 decisions and so that public confidence in our judiciary and our highest court is restored," Collins said, before delivering the final line of her about 45-minute floor speech: "Mr. President, I will vote to confirm Judge Kavanaugh."

Collins became the 50th Republican to support Kavanaugh, meaning that, if necessary, Vice President Mike Pence could break the tie in his favor in tomorrow's final vote. (Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski is expected to be the lone Republican to vote against Kavanaugh). Immediately following Collins' speech, Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia said in a statement that he would vote "yes" as well.

Collins' "yes" effectively ends a process that began in early July, when President Donald Trump announced that Kavanaugh was his pick to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy. Kavanaugh's confirmation seemed to be on a glide path until two weeks ago, when a woman named Christine Blasey Ford came forward alleging that the judge had sexually assaulted her when they were both teenagers.

After another hearing -- in which Ford and Kavanaugh both insisted they were 100% certain that the attack had and had not occurred, respectively -- and a five-day-long FBI investigation into the charges, Kavanaugh is set to make it to the nation's highest court sometime late Saturday afternoon.

His ascension is a major victory for Trump, who ran on the idea that electing him meant the chance to fundamentally reshape the ideological makeup of the Supreme Court. By putting Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch on the bench, Trump has done that before he is even halfway through his term. The Supreme Court is now solidly 5-4 in favor of conservatives -- and could be for years (or decades) to come.

It is also a major victory for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who never wavered in pushing for Kavanaugh's confirmation even amid the chaos that defined the fight over the past fortnight.

The political consequences of Kavanaugh's confirmation remain to be seen. The past two weeks have seen a surge in Republican enthusiasm -- as base voters are invigorated by the sense that Democrats are trying to smear a good man over wholly uncorroborated allegations.

Women, a large majority of whom already view Trump in a negative light, have also been activated by this fight -- and are promising consequences for this vote at the midterm ballot box in 32 days' time.

The Point: Kavanaugh will be on the Supreme Court. And Collins' vote to put him there will almost certainly be the most consequential -- and controversial -- of her career.

-- Chris

🎉 COMING SATURDAY: THE POINT MIDTERMS EDITION! 🎉 

The 2018 midterms are a month away, which means we are in the home stretch before voters make their choices. Will a "blue wave" sweep through states President Donald Trump won in 2016? Or will the bitter partisan battle over Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination fire up the GOP base enough to hold it off? It's crunch time for House and Senate candidates to make their cases to voters.
 
Watch your inboxes: We'll be bringing you a special, campaign-focused edition of The Point newsletter every Saturday morning leading up to Election Day, helmed by
Lauren Dezenski, recovering Bostonian, ambivalent Red Sox fan and co-author of The Point newsletter. (Don't worry, Chris will have plenty to say, too!)

This is a new experiment for The Point team, and we'd love to hear what you think! Do you like it? Not like it? Is there anything we should cover more? Send feedback to 
cillizza@cnn.com and lauren.dezenski@cnn.com, and make sure to keep an eye out for tomorrow's edition, landing at around 10 a.m. ET.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"If I need to be in two places at once to walk my daughter down the aisle on her wedding day and to be the final vote to put Judge Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, he's offered me use of his plane."

-- Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) on Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.). Daines' daughter is getting married in Montana on Saturday, the same day as the expected confirmation vote for Kavanaugh.

PARTY POLITICS

Protesters got a little creative ... and boozy ... while staging a "confirmation kegger" outside of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's house this morning in opposition to Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court.

More from CNN's Caroline Kenny: "Bearing cans of Pabst Blue Ribbon beer, signs with Kavanaugh's fraternity letters DKE, sunglasses and straw hats, the protesters sang 'what do we do with a drunken justice early in the morning' and 'what do we do with a confirmation early in the morning' to the tune of the sea shanty 'What shall we do with a drunken sailor,' followed by chants of 'chug.'"

THIS WEEK IN THE TRUMP WHITE HOUSE

It was a long, action-packed week for the Trump administration, ending with a dramatic last-second scramble for the votes to confirm judge Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court. In case you lost track, The Point's Brenna Williams rounded up the most important headlines of the week.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Senator Stinkball, as profiled by Ben Terris

Being the governor of Illinois sounds terrible

LA Times' Christine Mai-Duc on how Young Kim is trying to change the face of the Republican Party

How much do people trust 38 different news organizations? via Nieman Lab

RIP, Mattress Firm

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

🚨🚨🚨 Jason Isbell is releasing a live album Oct. 19. It was recorded at the Ryman Auditorium in Nashville.  Here's "Cover Me Up" from the upcoming album. 🚨🚨🚨

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: Kavanaugh took a MAJOR step toward the Supreme Court.

THANKS, OBAMACARE

The health care plan offered through the Affordable Care Act -- for the first time since 2014 -- could be cheaper than the previous year.

CNN's Tami Luhby has more: "The premium for the benchmark silver policy on the federal exchange is expected to decline by 2% for 2019, Health Secretary Alex Azar said Thursday. The predicted decline for next year comes after a 37% spike for this year's benchmark silver plan, upon which premium subsidies are based."

FLOTUS ABROAD

First lady Melania Trump continued her first FLOTUS trip abroad by conducting important outreach like ... hanging out with a bunch of baby elephants alongside first lady of Kenya Margaret Kenyatta.

Enjoy this dispatch from CNN's Kate Bennett, who is traveling with FLOTUS:  "When first lady Melania Trump first stepped out in front of the press Friday in Nairobi, Kenya, she was wearing an outfit suitable for the setting. She was at the David Sheldrick Wildlife Trust, ready to pet and bottle-feed baby elephants, who were prancing and playing with their caretakers on a large mound of red clay-like dirt, which is why the first lady's khaki jodhpur pants tucked into tall, brown leather riding boots, and crisp, white tailored shirt seemed appropriate, if a bit of a gamble."

BUILD THAT WALL: SENATE EDITION

Democrats want a wall of their own. This one doesn't exactly go on the border, though. Instead, Democrats are working to ensure that a key bloc of Great Lakes states return to the blue column when it comes to this year's Senate contests. 

CNN's Terence Burlij writes, "CNN is moving Ohio and Wisconsin from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic in its Key Race Ratings. They join two other Great Lakes states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, as likely Democratic holds." 

Those states are four of 10 won by Trump in 2016, and the key races rating shift marks "a promising sign for Democrats hoping to overcome the favorable map Republicans enjoy this cycle."

YOUR DAILY GIF

H/T Brenna
From Brenna: "It's Friday! I'm as stoked about that as President Trump was to wear another hard hat earlier this week. If you like GIFs and want to catch up on what happened this week, look no further. And if you want your friends to be as caught up as you, share The Point with them!"
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.

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