The Point: Joe's Gonna Go (probably)

October 17, 2018  by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Joe's Gonna Go (probably)

If you are into political tea leaf reading -- and I VERY MUCH am -- then it's hard to see how Joe Biden has spent his fall as anything but clear evidence that, unless something big changes, he's going to run for president in 2020.

The latest move by Biden was to take on the question of his age -- he's 75 -- head on during a speech in Michigan this week.

"I think age is a totally legitimate thing to raise," Biden said. "I think it's totally appropriate for people to look at me and say, if I were to run for office again, 'Well God darn you're old.' Well chronologically I am old."

Which is smart! Because one of the central questions surrounding Biden (not to mention the 77-year-old Bernie Sanders) is whether he is simply too old to run for a four-year term as president. While that issue may be lessened somewhat by the fact that the 72-year old Donald Trump is President, it is still going to be an issue that Biden is going to have to face if he runs. So why not try to deal with it now? To get to a good answer and stick with it.

Ditto Biden's decision to apologize for the way in which the Senate Judiciary Committee -- of which he was the chairman -- treated Anita Hill during the 1991 Supreme Court confirmation of Clarence Thomas. 

"The woman should be given the benefit of the doubt and not be abused again by the system," Biden said of Hill during an interview with NBC last month. "My biggest regret was, I didn't know how I could shut you off because you were a senator and you were attacking Anita Hill's character. ... She got victimized during the process."

Again, a recognition on Biden's part that in the #MeToo era, the way in which he allowed the likes of Howell Heflin, D-Alabama, and Arlen Specter, R-Pennsylvania, to interrogate Hill, who alleged that Thomas had made a series of unwanted sexual advances toward her in the workplace, was the sort of thing he was going to have to address. So he did.

Making proactive attempts to deal with known problems is what candidates who are getting ready to run do. (Elizabeth Warren tried this earlier this week in releasing a DNA test designed to prove she was of Native American lineage. It didn't work great.)

His latest moves -- coupled with the fact that Biden has been a stalwart for Democratic candidates all over the country in the midterms (he was in Charleston over the weekend to raise money for South Carolina gubernatorial candidate James Smith) -- all point to the same thing: Biden's running.

The Point: In politics, nothing is official until it's announced. That holds true with a third Biden presidential bid. But man oh man, it sure does look like he's not just thinking about it, but planning on doing it. 

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"You never know until you try. Um, I think it's fair to say that Donald Trump -- nobody thought he would be a formidable candidate when he started running, and yet here he is, living at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. So you never know."

-- Former New York Mayor and newly registered Democrat Michael Bloomberg, responding to President Donald Trump's criticism of his potential 2020 run.

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME

Democrat Beto O'Rouke took a page out of President Donald Trump's playbook during his debate against Texas Sen. Ted Cruz last night.

Yes, he recycled the nickname.

"It's why the President called him 'Lying Ted,' and it's why the nickname stuck -- because it's true," O'Rourke said while criticizing his Republican opponent.

The name-drop is noteworthy for a couple reasons, as CNN's Eric Bradner writes: O'Rourke, who is consistently trailing in the polls to Cruz by roughly 7 points, has been reticent to name-drop Trump or even Cruz himself, much less throw elbows at his opponent. With fewer than three weeks until Election Day, there could be a big league change afoot. 

Tune in: CNN's own Dana Bash is interviewing Beto in a one-hour town hall Thursday night starting at 7 p.m. ET/6 p.m. CT. FWIW, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz's campaign initially accepted CNN's invitation to participate but later declined, a network official said. To stay up to date on all election events, subscribe on your Google or Apple calendar.

CHRIS' GOOD READS

Michael Avenatti isn't kidding around

Is that Robert Mueller's music?????

This is a good summary by Philip Bump about what we know the government knows about the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi

An oral history of The Stone Pony by Nick Corasaniti

The Cut's Kelly Conaboy ranked all Halloween candy

Rolling Stone interviewed Jason Isbell and Amanda Shires!

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Rihanna would be proud. Meghan Markle, Britain's newest royal, made sure her future baby daddy stood under her umbrella-ella-ella while Prince Harry spoke in Australia today. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump recently afforded no such protections to his wife Melania.

INSTA POINT

Today's topic: "Trump is already trying to avoid being blamed if the GOP loses its majority."

THE TRUMP BUMP

President Donald Trump likes to do things big. 

And it seems he could have the biggest impact on midterm voters' minds of any sitting president since 1982.

Six in 10 registered voters say Trump is a factor in their midterm vote -- the highest percentage since Pew Research Center began tracking the question.

Of those voters:

37% say they'll cast a ballot to oppose Trump
23% will vote in support of Trump

EYE ON DACA

Seizing on the newly minted conservative majority on the Supreme Court, the Trump Justice Department is signaling it wants to speed up a handful of cases through the lower courts in the hopes of faster favorable rulings by the Supreme Court.

Among those cases: The Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which protects some undocumented immigrants from deportation, according to CNN's Ariane de Vogue.

The administration's goal is for the Supreme Court to consider DACA before the end of the court's current term, which ends in June 2019.

2020'S HOTTEST CLUB IS ... 

South Carolina!

Nearly every viable (or interested in being viable) in 2020 Democrat is heading to the Palmetto state ahead of Election Day.

Check out who has made or will make visits to the state in the campaign's home stretch: 
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden
  • Montana Gov. Steve Bullock
  • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg
  • New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker 
  • California Sen. Kamala Harris
  • Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
  • Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg
  • Attorney Michael Avenatti 
For all these candidates, a visit to South Carolina this fall accomplishes two things:

Getting in front of active Democrats now can come in handy with name recognition and on-the-ground organization for the state's early primary come 2020, not to mention the critically important African-American vote in South Carolina that's just not as present in Iowa and New Hampshire.

YOUR DAILY GIF

From Brenna: "President Trump basically pulled a 'These aren't the droids you're looking for' during his Cabinet meeting today. This is the newsletter all your friends are looking for."
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.

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