| | | | 5 things we learned from Elizabeth Warren's DNA test | | On Monday morning, Elizabeth Warren released a 5+ minute video aimed at making two simple points: 1) She is, as she claimed for years, at least marginally Native American and 2) She never got ahead because of it.
"The facts suggest that you absolutely have a Native American ancestor in your pedigree," Carlos Bustamante, a professor of genetics at Stanford University, tells Warren in a video released by her campaign.
So why did Warren do this -- and do it now -- and what lessons should we learn from it? Here we go!
1. She's running in 2020. You don't do a "clearing of the decks" like this unless you are trying to get your origin story 100% straight going into a run for the Democratic presidential nomination.
2. She's running in 2020. (See No. 1)
3. She wants to show Democrats she won't be "Swift-Boated." In 2004, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry watched his military service used against him by forces aligned with George W. Bush's campaign. In hindsight, Democrats believe Kerry was taken by surprise by the attacks and shouldn't have been. What Warren is making clear here is that she won't make the same mistake, that she will be (and already is) ready.
4. Trump's attacks were hurting her. Since it became clear Warren might be a 2020 candidate, Trump has regurgitated his 2016 attack on her as "Pocahontas." If this attack wasn't hurting Warren -- whether it was with activists, donors or just her own personal pride -- she would never have engaged at the level she did. A slick, campaign-style video, a DNA test AND a mountain of documentation about her background? That feels like overkill if this is a tiny problem. Given the reaction of Warrenworld, you can be sure they didn't believe it was a tiny problem.
5. This doesn't solve everything. OK, so the DNA test suggested there's a very strong likelihood that Warren is somewhere between 1/64th and 1/1,024th Native American. That's not exactly a conclusive pushback against attacks from Trump and other Republicans -- particularly if Warren is the nominee. ("She owes the country an apology," Trump said Monday afternoon.) Also: Don't assume this stuff will only be used by Trump; if Warren runs, you can bet her Democratic opponents will float it as evidence that she might not be able to beat Trump in the general election.
Warren's attempt to get beyond this debate was made even more complicated late Monday, when Chuck Hoskin Jr., the secretary of state of the Cherokee Nation, said, "a DNA test is useless to determine tribal citizenship. Current DNA tests do not even distinguish whether a person's ancestors were indigenous to North or South America."
The Point: This is a bold move for any presidential candidate to make at any time -- much less before you've even announced for president and before the 2020 campaign has even officially started. It speaks to both Warren's ambitions in 2020 and her worries about having her murky background story exploited for political gain.
-- Chris | | "I know all these things. I mean -- I'm not a baby. I know these things."
-- President Donald Trump, explaining to Leslie Stahl of "60 Minutes" that he has to keep his guard up and, like Melania, can't trust everyone at the White House. | | | It's never too early to forecast 2020 -- and we've got the numbers on where things stand on the would-be field thanks to new polling from CNN and SSRS.
On the GOP side, the country is apparently split over whether President Donald Trump will win re-election:
46% think Trump will win in 2020
47% think Trump won't win in 2020
And among the Dems, former Vice President Joe Biden leads the field of 16 possible candidates, (which, FWIW, this early on is often a better sign of name recognition than anything else). Check out the top six placements from our latest poll:
33% Joe Biden
13% Bernie Sanders
9% Kamala Harris
8% Elizabeth Warren
5% Cory Booker
5% John Kerry | | | This Lumineers cover of Tom Petty's "Walls" is a) amazing and b) has a sweet story behind it. It's the song the wife of Lumineers' front man Wesley Schultz walked down the aisle to at their wedding. "This is our way of paying homage to him," Schultz said of the song and Petty, who passed away in 2017 at age 66. | |  | Trump has a denial double standard | | | Watch Chris explain the hidden pattern in President Donald Trump's denials. | | Welcome to Warren week.
In addition to releasing her DNA test results and challenging Trump to follow through on his word to donate $1 million (good luck), Elizabeth Warren also tops Chris and Harry Enten's latest ranking of 2020 contenders.
That top spot comes as the Massachusetts senator and potential 2020 candidate gets a crucial enthusiasm boost from Democratic women following the Kavanaugh hearings and -- unlike Bernie Sanders -- is running for re-election to the Senate as an actual Democrat. | | WE WERE TOLD THERE WOULD BE NO MATH | | If at first you don't succeed, try again -- and again.
Tucked into the bottom of The Boston Globe's Elizabeth Warren DNA story is a correction to Warren's potential Native American ancestry percentage that attempts to clarify what distant fraction of her own heritage could be American Indian.
The first try (caught by Fox's Brooke Singman): "Due to a math error, a story about Elizabeth Warren misstated the ancestry percentage of a potential 10th generation relative. It should be 1/1,024."
Second try: "Due to a math error, a story about Elizabeth Warren misstated the ancestry percentage of a potential 6th to 10th generation relative. The generational range based on the ancestor that the report identified suggests she's between 1/64th and 1/1,024th Native American." | | Elizabeth Warren isn't the only elected official dealing with issues around a claim to Native American heritage.
California Rep. Kevin McCarthy's in-laws netted millions in government contracts from a "dubious claim" of Native American heritage, according to a new story from the LA Times.
After claiming to be one-eighth Cherokee Indian, the company received contracts set aside for economically and socially disadvantaged minority groups. The claim to Cherokee heritage is now in question in the wake of the report.
McCarthy, a key Trump ally, is the second-most senior Republican in the House and in contention for the House speaker position if Republicans hold their majority next year. | | Hurricane Michael destroyed not only coastlines and lives, but it also has sidelined the campaign activities for three of four statewide candidates in Florida.
Here's a rundown of who's out of commission from the campaign trail in the Sunshine State, and for how long: ❌ For now: Andrew Gillum (Democrat, currently mayor of Tallahassee, running for governor) ❌For a little longer: Sen. Bill Nelson (Democrat, running for re-election) ❌ Until Election Day: Gov. Rick Scott (Republican, running for Senate against Nelson) | | | From Brenna: "I see you, Pentagon press briefing, letting actors like Gerard Butler come in and mix things up. Does this have anything to do with those rumors that we're going to need a new Defense secretary soon? I understand he's been in approximately 300 movies about various things falling, dragons being trained and tombs being raided. But the ugly truth is that he might not be qualified for the job. PS - I love you, those of you who are telling everyone you know to subscribe for The Point." | | | | | | |
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