| | | | These 2 Democrats have the highest 2020 upside |  | | It's easy to look at a poll of the 2020 Democratic primary race and conclude that Joe Biden is the frontunner, with Bernie Sanders as the alternative if the former vice president falters.
It's easy because it's, broadly speaking, true! In the new CNN-SSRS national survey, Biden is at 32% in the hypothetical Democratic 2020 primary, while Sanders is in second with 18%. None of the other 20+ candidates receives double-digit support.
That's where the race is TODAY. And it may be where the race winds up. But if you dig just a little bit into the numbers, there are two candidates not named "Biden" or "Sanders" who jump out as potentially strong bets to make noise in the contest: Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg.
Here's why: The California senator and the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, have two specific things going for them:
1) They are performing solidly in national polling
2) Lots and lots of Democrats still know nothing about them
Let's start with No. 1. In the CNN poll, Harris takes 8%, good for third place behind Biden and Sanders. Buttigieg receives 5%, putting him in a tie for fifth with former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Now, those aren't amazing numbers -- especially when you consider that Biden is in the 30s in terms of support.
BUT, that brings me to No. 2. Asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates, 40% said they had "never heard of" Mayor Pete, while 29% said they had never heard of Harris. Just 5% hadn't heard of Biden (Sidebar: Who are you people????) while 3% had never heard of Sanders.
Why does that matter, you ask? Because numbers like those suggest that both Buttigieg and Harris still have lots of room to grow, or in the parlance of the NBA Draft -- coming June 20! -- they have major upside. Or high ceilings.
All of which simply means that they are doing pretty well in securing support among those who know them, but the real key is that lots and lots of people don't really know them yet. Biden and Sanders are known commodities to the electorate. People know them and have opinions about them -- opinions that are unlikely to change in any drastic way. Buttigieg and Harris still have the chance to introduce themselves -- in any way they want -- to tons of Democratic voters between now and next February.
And both candidates will have the money to do that. Harris raised more than $12 million in the first three months of 2019 and Buttigieg brought in $7 million. That cash haul will pay for direct mail pieces and TV ads that will ensure that every Iowa and New Hampshire voter will know who these candidates are (and what they believe) before the time comes to vote.
The Point: None of the above means that Buttigieg or Harris are the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination today. They aren't. And they may never be. But what it does mean is that both of them have major growth potential.
-- Chris | | "It was a liberation like few people have seen before."
-- President Donald Trump talking about D-Day during joint remarks with British PM Theresa May in London. | | | Welcome to a new feature called The Point Dictionary Word of the Day, where we define a word or phrase in the national political conversation. Today's term is ...
Brexit
Defined as: The departure of Great Britain from the European Union, the phrase is a portmanteau of "Britain" and "Exit."
British voters approved the measure narrowly in summer of 2016, despite polling showing that the nation would remain in the EU. At the time, then-Republican nominee Donald Trump likened his underdog chances to the movement, tweeting: "They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT."
Trump has since tied himself with Brexit-aligned members of the British government -- and, while in London, said Brexit should and will still happen, despite unsuccessful efforts for the British Parliament to pass a Brexit plan.
Used in a sentence:
Donald Trump DID predict Brexit -- but he made up a more dramatic story about how it happened, saying he made the prediction one day before the vote at his Scotland property (when it was actually in a TV interview months before). | | Holmes Lybrand fact-checked Donald Trump's press conference with Theresa May
Democrats may want to target Trump voters in 2020, according to Ron Brownstein
And Trump's campaign is trying to expand the playing field
Are Senate Republicans in trouble in 2020?
Amazing photos from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster (and you need to watch HBO's "Chernobyl" miniseries)
How James Holzhauer finally lost | | | These newly-released live recordings of Bob Dylan's Rolling Thunder Revue sessions are absolutely amazing. | |  | | Today's topic: The 19th amendment is looking *good* at 100. | |  | Getting a spot at the Dem debates just got harder | | The Democratic National Committee (DNC) just changed the rules for 2020 candidates hoping to get onstage for the September debate. Not everyone is happy.
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LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST | | Michael Bennet: Has become the 20th candidate to meet the polling threshold to qualify for the DNC debates.
Joe Biden: Continues to lead the 2020 field of Democrats with 32% support in a new CNN/SSRS poll. He also released a climate plan that aims for net-zero emissions by 2050.
Elizabeth Warren: Rolled out a plan for implementing a "Green New Deal" while campaigning in the Midwest.
Marianne Williamson: Introduced an immigration proposal she titled "A Civilized Path to Citizenship" while on the stump in New Hampshire today. | | | | | | |
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