The Point: A Texas-sized problem for Trump

View this email in your browser June 6, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski A Texas-sized problem for Trump When you think of the handful of swing states where the 2020 presidential race will be decided, Texas probably isn't top of mind. But a new poll from Quinnipiac University suggests we might need to reassess that view.  Former Vice President Joe Biden took 48% in the Texas poll as compared to 44% for President Donald Trump. And it's not just Biden who is running competitively with the president in Texas; the Q poll shows five other potential Democratic nominees -- including Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris -- trailing Trump well within the poll's margin of error. If this was a lone result with no comparable data to back it up, we could -- and probably should -- dismiss it. But there is other data that suggests this could be a real thing. Most notably, Gallup's state-by-state presidential job approval numbers for 2018. In Texas, 41% approved of how Trump was doing his job while 52% disapproved. Compare that to Trump's 2018 job approval in so-called swing states like: Ohio (48% approve/48% disapprove) Iowa (45%/51%) Florida (43%/51%) North Carolina (45%/50%) So, there's that. And beyond polling, we have actual election results that back up the possibility of Texas as an emerging swing state. In 2018, then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D) came within 2.5 points of knocking off Sen. Ted Cruz (R). And two years before that, Trump only won the state by 9 points over Hillary Clinton -- a far cry from his 36-point victory in neighboring Oklahoma or even his 28-point margin in Alabama. This Q poll then is part of a trend. It's not an anomaly. The question for Democrats -- or, more specifically, the eventual 2020 Democratic nominee -- is whether it's worth spending the tens of millions you would need to cover Texas with TV ads when that money could be divvied up among a whole lot of other smaller (and less expensive) swing states. That's especially true when it's a near-certainty that both parties will spend heavily in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and (probably) Ohio -- all of which are large states where TV time doesn't come cheap. The Point: Texas was never as reliably Republican as conventional wisdom suggested in the 2000s.  Its large and growing Hispanic population makes it an emerging swing state. The real question is whether Democrats will go after it in 2020 or wait until 2024? -- Chris QUOTE OF THE DAY "I don't want to see him impeached, I want to see him in prison." -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on President Trump, according to a Politico report. ✅FACT CHECK, INTERNATIONAL EDITION We have another Point-exclusive fact check from our colleague Holmes Lybrand, this time on President Trump's falsehood-filled first state visit to the UK (with stops in Ireland and France). Holmes gives us a very quick rundown: Trump: Called the anti-Trump protests in London "fake news, I hate to say." Truth: Wrong. As reporting, photos and videos show, there were thousands of protesters gathering in London to oppose Trump's visit. Trump: Said transgender people can't serve in the military because you can't take hormone drugs in the military. Truth: One most certainly can take prescription drugs, including hormone treatments, in the military -- the Military Health System covers all medicine the doctors deem necessary for their patients in the military. Trump: Said he predicted Brexit the day before it happened while hanging out in Scotland. Truth: He predicted it months earlier in Florida, not in Scotland and not "the day before it happened." Trump: Said he got the highest approval rating ever among Republicans. Truth: Nope. Bush reached 99% approval among Republicans in 2001. Trump sits a few points below. Trump: Said the US has the cleanest air. Truth: Actually, we're 88th on particulate matter. Have another fact check for The Point team? Let us know! Lauren.dezenski@cnn.com.  LAUREN'S GOOD READS Meet the teens behind Mike Gravel's latest presidential campaign How Dems are courting Hollywood but keeping their lefty cred Whitewashing FEMA's disaster response reports QUITE the lucky guess! This is absolutely incredible MUSICAL INTERLUDE Chris Stapleton sings "The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy" for the new Toy Story 4 and .... is it getting dusty in here??? BIDEN'S ON TOP ... FOR NOW 2020 rankings: Despite attacks, Biden holds lead Joe Biden holds onto his lead in CNN's latest 2020 Democrat rankings. Chris explains what has kept Biden on top and how those down the list are fighting back. LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST Marianne Williamson: Says she has moved to Des Moines, Iowa, taking a page out of the Dick Gephardt and Chris Dodd playbooks. Steve Bullock: Has formally complained about the DNC polling threshold that could bar him from qualifying for the party's first debate. Jay Inslee: Called it "extremely disappointing" that the DNC won't hold a debate around climate change.  Kirsten Gillibrand: Says she is now less than 5,000 donors away from the 65,000-donor threshold to qualify for the debates. Amy Klobuchar: Rolled out a policy on mental health and has been endorsed by an Iowa state representative. Seth Moulton: Has unveiled a plan to review the discharge statuses of gay and lesbian veterans. Elizabeth Warren: Received praise from an unlikely source -- Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson, who called her economic policy ideas "economic patriotism." YOUR DAILY GIF From Brenna: "Get yourself a senator who gets as animated about your city as Cory Booker gets about Newark. Share The Point with someone from your hometown!" We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter. Subscribe to The Point unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences  Copyright © 2019 Cable News Network, LP, LLLP. A WarnerMedia Company. 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