| | | | 5 storylines to watch in 2020's biggest week yet! |  | | 5. Who drops first?: The Democratic field is massive, but how long can it stay that way? Yes, no actual votes will be cast until February 2020, but at some point in the not-too-distant future, some of these longer-than-long-shot candidates have to call it quits, right? So, who should be on your "I quit!" radar?
Start with the three candidates -- Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam, Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock -- who didn't clear the bar to qualify for the first debates of the race later this month. (MUCH more on the first debates below.) They're the most obvious to drop, except none of them are burdened with either high expectations or large staffs -- the two most traditional reasons for being forced out of the presidential race.
Instead, keep an eye on candidates who may have tried to grow too fast -- in terms of staff and organization -- and could be running out of money sometime soon. Julián Castro might fit into that category. Ditto Kirsten Gillibrand.
To be clear: No one is dropping out of the race until the first debates -- and maybe not even for a few months after that. But at some point the money runs out, the polls don't move and the writing is on the wall.
4. The Court is in: The Supreme Court's current term will end in a little over two weeks -- and there's still several decisions yet to come down that will have a major impact on our political world.
The two biggest are: a) the fight over whether the Trump administration is allowed to put a citizenship question on the coming Census (Department of Commerce v. New York) and b) two cases centered on whether redistricting done for political motives should be legal (Lamone v. Benisek and Rucho v. Common Cause).
Both have huge political implications.
Opponents of adding the citizenship question say that such a question will result in a significant undercount of minority populations -- particularly Hispanics -- that will lead to a lack of representation for those groups when congressional lines are drawn after the Census count ends.
The two political gerrymandering cases are being looked to as potentially precedent-setting for the coming decennial redraw of the nation's lines. If political considerations can't be the primary motivator of line-drawing, it could potentially have a massive impact in how much (or little) influence state lawmakers can have on how districts look for the next 10 years.
3. The "Orange" debate, handicapped: On Friday afternoon, NBC News announced the lineups for the first two 2020 debates -- on June 26 and June 27 in Miami. The "Orange" group will take the stage Wednesday; the "Purple" Group the following night.
Here's the Orange lineup: Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Julián Castro, Tim Ryan, Bill de Blasio, and Jay Inslee.
This is without question the less star-studded of the two debates -- especially with Booker and Beto not yet living up to the high expectations many people had for them. That's been cast as a problem for Warren, who is clearly the best-polling candidate in the Orange debate. I disagree; I think Warren will likely shine in this group of less experienced debaters. And because this will be the first debate of the 2020 season, I think there will be plenty of eyeballs on it.
I think Klobuchar has to be happy with this draw, too; she is one of only two top-tier female candidates on the stage, and she likely will benefit from much of the attention (from other candidates) being directed at Warren.
2. The "Purple" debate, handicapped: This is easily the debate night with the bigger names. And those names are: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Bennet, Eric Swalwell, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang.
Biden and Sanders will obviously be the prime movers -- due to their polling (and pole) positions in the race and their contrasting views of who the Democratic Party is and where it needs to go. They are both experienced debaters and the only people who have done this presidential debating thing before.
My dark horse? Andrew Yang. (Neither Harris nor Buttigieg count as a real dark horse at this point, people!) Yang has a nerdy appeal and will benefit from the fact that lots and lots of Democrats know nothing (or very little) about him or his positions.
1. Trump 2020 goes official: Trump formed his 2020 presidential campaign on the day he was inaugurated in 2017 -- and hasn't been shy about talking about the race since then. He's often engaged his crowds at rallies in a debate over whether he should keep "Make America Great Again" as his slogan or change it to "Keep America Great." And his campaign has already raised more than $97 million -- with more than $40 million left in the bank -- through March.
But the Trump 2020 campaign gets its formal kickoff this week at Trump holds an event in Orlando, Florida. "We're going to be announcing on Tuesday, we have a tremendous -- we're announcing in Orlando on Tuesday and we have over 100,000 people trying to get seats," Trump told "Fox and Friends" last Friday.
Crowd size boasts aside, that Trump and his team chose Florida to officially kick off the 2020 campaign is significant and telling. Trump carried Florida in 2016 (after Barack Obama had won it twice in 2008 and 2012) and it was one of the only swing states that didn't reverse course in 2018; Republican Ron DeSantis, with a major assist from Trump, won the governor's race and Rick Scott beat then-Sen. Bill Nelson (D).
With places like Michigan and Pennsylvania looking dicey for Trump in 2020, Florida -- and its 29 electoral votes -- becomes a must-have. So Trump starts the campaign -- formally at least -- right in the Sunshine State. | | | | | | |
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