| | | | Joe Biden is talking really big about the 2020 map |  | | Joe Biden isn't the Democratic presidential nominee just yet, but that fact didn't stop him from making a very bold prediction on Monday.
"If I'm your nominee, I'm winning Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, believe it or not, and I believe we can win Texas and Florida," Biden said at the Poor People's Moral Action Congress in Washington. "Look at the polling there now. … I have no intention of walking away."
BOLD!
Is this just empty rhetoric from Biden? Or is there a real chance he could actually win some -- or all -- of those states if he is the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee?
Start here: In the last five presidential elections, the Democratic nominee has won any of these five states only three total times. (Barack Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012 and won North Carolina in 2008). That breaks out to a 12% win rate. Which isn't very good!
Looking solely at the 2016 results, Trump won all five states, although his margins varied somewhat widely: Florida (Trump +1 percentage point), North Carolina (Trump +3), Georgia (Trump +5), Texas (Trump +9) and South Carolina (Trump +14%).
But in Gallup's 2018 year-end state-by-state polling, of those five states, only in South Carolina did more people approve of the job Trump was doing (50%) than disapproved (46%). Trump's worst state among those five, according to Gallup? Texas -- where 41% approved and 51% disapproved.
Those 2018 numbers -- plus some more recent polling here and there in Texas and North Carolina -- suggest those states could be in play for Biden (or, possibly, several of the 2020 Democratic candidates).
Here's the thing: What Biden is talking about when he says he is going to win those five GOP-leaning states would be a total and complete Electoral College wipeout of the sitting incumbent.
The five states Biden mentioned have a combined 107 electoral votes among them. Combine those with the likelihood that Michigan and Pennsylvania swing back to Democrats, and you would be talking about a shift of 143 electoral votes. If everything else on the 2016 map stayed the same, Biden would win with 375 electoral votes -- a total that would eclipse Obama's 2012 (332 electoral votes) and 2008 (365) victories.
The Point: Anything is possible in an electoral age in which Trump is President. But for Biden to win 370+ electoral votes over a sitting President? That still feels very, very unlikely.
-- Chris | | "If you're going to cough, please leave the room."
-- President Trump stopping an interview to kick his chief of staff out of the room for coughing. Chris details that and 77 other wild lines from that ABC News interview. | | | Gerrymandering
The word itself is a portmanteau of "salamander" and "Gerry."
Gerry is the name of the Massachusetts governor who in 1812 signed a bill authorizing the redrawn state Senate district that just so happened to benefit his political party -- the first instance of "gerrymandering." Salamander stands for the contorted shape of a redrawn district (which frequently looks like a wriggling salamander).
If a district has been gerrymandered, it means that its boundaries have been redrawn to specifically benefit -- or or slight -- a group (like a race or political party).
Virginia's Republican-led House of Delegates was recently ordered to redraw its electoral districts after a lower court ruled many had been unconstitutionally racially gerrymandered. Today, the Supreme Court dismissed a challenge to those redrawn districts. | | Joe Biden is one of 23 Democratic presidential candidates. He's ignoring all of them.
The winning seriousness of Elizabeth Warren, via Emily Bazelon
And Edward-Isaac Dovere on what the heck went wrong for Kirsten Gillibrand
RIP, Alan Brinkley
William Langewiesche on what really happened to MH 370
Why the Lakers shouldn't be the favorites to win the NBA title next year | | | NPR Music Playlists are now a thing. Life is good. Correction: Life is very good. | | IT'S (ALMOST) TIME TO FRY | | On Friday, 22 of the 23 Democrats running for president will descend on South Carolina for a major event in the 2020 calendar: Rep. Jim Clyburn's annual Fish Fry.
And right now, organizers are doing the important prep work for the 27-year-old event -- getting actual fish to fry.
It's no small order, either. Organizers will need 4,400 pounds of fish and 6,400 slices of white bread, according to The State. All to feed an estimated 1,600 attendees. | |
LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST | | Pete Buttigieg: Says his campaign raised $7 million in April alone. He's also canceled campaign events through Wednesday to return home after an officer-involved shooting in South Bend.
Donald Trump: Just fired a bevy of pollsters from his campaign after a number of unflattering internal polls were leaked.
Elizabeth Warren: Proposed a $7 billion fund to back minority business expansion.
Joe Biden: Described himself as an "odd man out" with Democrats on abortion in a 2006 interview. | | | | | | |
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