Election eve: Clinton, Trump set for late-night rallies … More than 40 million early votes cast … Prediction models like Clinton’s odds

CNN Politics:  Nightcap
November 7, 2016   |   by Eric Bradner

Election eve: Clinton, Trump set for late-night rallies

Hillary Clinton is set to wrap up her campaign with two huge events tonight: A Philadelphia rally featuring the Democratic Party's two power couples -- with President Barack Obama, Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton on hand, as well as Bruce Springsteen. Then, a midnight Raleigh, North Carolina, stop with her family, Lady Gaga and Jon Bon Jovi

Donald Trump will conclude with his running mate, Mike Pence, in Manchester, New Hampshire -- the site of Trump's first victory in the Republican primary -- and then at 11 p.m. ET, with a final stop in Grand Rapids, Michigan. 

CNN everywhere: CNN is offering unrestricted access to its "Election Night in America" coverage from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday through 4 a.m. ET Wednesday. Catch it from CNN.com or on your CNN mobile app. More about our coverage plans from CNN Digital Editor-in-Chief Meredith Artley here.

Here's what you need to know for the last 24 hours of the contest:

Clinton's optimistic closing message: "Tomorrow is the election, but that is just the beginning," Clinton said at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh. "We have to heal this country. We have to bring people together, to listen and respect each other." CNN's MJ Lee and Dan Merica were there.

-- A Clinton note from Michigan: At a rally in heavily Republican, suburban Allendale, she praised former GOP President (and Michigander) Gerald Ford -- still a hero there. She said she got to know him in an internship. She said that "so many Republicans have spoken out to endorse me and support me" -- including some "who have taken very courageous stands against the nominee of their own party."

A confident Trump on the trail: Tonight in Scranton, Pennsylvania, he said: "I think we're going to blow 'em out tomorrow in a lot of different ways -- blow them out. No way, this is not the sound of a second-place finisher, that I can tell you." CNN's Stephen Collinson has more.

Spotted at Trump's party site for tomorrow night by Washington Post video journalist Jorge Ribas: Room for "Trump TV." Queue another round of speculation about his post-election plans.
Today's must-read comes from The Washington Post's Ben Terris, on the months of gaslighting he faced from the Trump campaign after witnessing Corey Lewandowski physically yank journalist Michelle Fields away from Trump.

Keep an eye out tomorrow: We'll be back with a handy poll closing schedule, details on how the candidates spent their final hours and previews of their plans for Tuesday night. 

STRAIGHT UP

"This is the last day of our campaign. Who would have believed this? Who would have believed this? It's been some campaign, too."

 

-- Donald Trump in Sarasota, Florida.

BUZZING

What do the models say? Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com has Hillary Clinton's odds of beating Donald Trump just shy of 70% and is projecting Clinton to reach 299 electoral votes.
The New York Times' Upshot has Clinton at an 84% chance of winning -- with plenty of in-depth analysis on each state here.
And Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics has Clinton at 322 electoral votes to Trump's 216.

BAR TALK

Final early voting tally: More than 40.7 million votes cast

As early voting ended Monday, an analysis by CNN's Marshall Cohen finds that 40.7 million Americans have cast their ballots so far across 39 states. 

Where Democrats have cast more ballots: Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada.

Where Republicans have cast more ballots: Arizona, Colorado, Ohio and Utah.

The trends we're seeing: The Latino vote is surging, as The Upshot's Nate Cohn points out. African-American turnout is declining somewhat as an overall share of the electorate. And early voting is, generally, up everywhere.

Where this data comes from: CNN has partnered with Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and groups, to receive detailed information on early voting this year.

The North Carolina early vote data is good for Republicans. African-American votes have declined as a share of the overall electorate, and Democrats missed their 2012 pace. The hope for Clinton: The state's swelling ranks of college-educated suburbanites will carry her. CNN's David Heath and Sonam Vashi break it down -- and include this graph:

TIPSY

At his last solo campaign event in office, President Barack Obama wrapped up his rally for Hillary Clinton in Durham, New Hampshire, with a "Fired up! Ready to go!" chant and a slap of the podium. Don't miss CNN's Kevin Liptak on Obama's last campaign.

LAST CALL

How the government is guarding against cyber incidents

A note from CNN's Evan Perez: The FBI, Homeland Security and intelligence officials are operating round-the-clock operations centers beginning today as part of preparations to guard against any cyber incidents that could affect Election Day, according to administration and law enforcement officials. 
 
Among the top concerns are possible disruptive incidents, including hoaxes, that could cause confusion for voters. Officials are also concerned about possible DDoS -- denial of service attacks -- of news organization websites. There are no known cyberthreats that would likely affect voting or the vote count, administration and law enforcement officials say. 

It's a big day at the ballot box for marijuana

From CNN's Jen Christensen: On this Election Day, voters in five states will get to decide whether marijuana should be legal to use recreationally. It's on the ballot in California, Massachusetts, Maine, Arizona and Nevada. Voters will also decide whether it should be used for medical reasons in three other states.

The status today: Currently, it's legal to use recreational marijuana only in four states and in the District of Columbia. Colorado and Washington state voted to OK it in 2012. Alaska and Oregon voters approved it in 2014. Medical marijuana is legal in half of US states and is on state ballots this year in Montana, Florida and North Dakota. It will be on the ballot in Arkansas with two initiatives, but the results won't count for one of them, after the state Supreme Court struck the issue in October, due to invalid signatures.

CLOSING TIME

Janet Reno, the attorney general under Bill Clinton, died Monday. She was 78. ... No, you cannot vote via text message. Period. Any texts saying you can are just attempts to keep you from voting. ... There's voting absentee, and then there's this: Shane Kimbrough, a NASA astronaut currently living on board the International Space Station, cast his ballot from space.

Thanks for reading the CNN Politics Nightcap. Your bartender is Eric Bradner. The tip jar: nightcap@cnn.com.
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Your bartender for CNN Politics' Nightcap is Eric Bradner (@ericbradner) — Tips, thoughts and beer recommendations are always welcome at nightcap@cnn.com.


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