| | | | Clinton's up in Nevada -- but is Michigan slipping away? | | As the 2016 race's final map comes into view, Hillary Clinton's campaign looks to have Nevada locked down -- even though Donald Trump is there today. But Trump has Democrats sweating in Michigan. And Florida is -- as usual -- an absolute nail-biter.
Here's a state-by-state rundown:
NEVADA: Why is it likely blue? Because of Democrats' massive early vote lead, which I broke down this morning. The short version: They're up by 72,000 votes -- 13.7 points -- in Clark County, where two-thirds of the state's voters live. Republicans' modeling suggests Trump can make up a gap of only 6 points in Clark County and still win the state. Overall, Democrats lead after early voting by 46,000 votes, or 6 points, out of the 767,000 votes cast -- roughly the same lead they had at this point in 2012, when President Barack Obama easily bested Mitt Romney. And because 7 in 10 Nevada voters cast their ballots early, it'll be next to impossible for the GOP to close the gap on Election Day.
"Trump is dead." That's the conclusion long-time Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston drew after examining the early vote tally today. He also says the down-ballot ripple effect will cost Republicans their shot at Harry Reid's Senate seat, as well as two House seats and control of the state legislature. | | MICHIGAN: On Monday, Clinton will be in Grand Rapids, and President Barack Obama will visit Michigan -- a last-minute focus that reads like a reliably blue state that's suddenly slipped into too-close-for-comfort territory for the Democrats. Mike Pence, the GOP vice presidential nominee, has now visited Michigan for three consecutive days.
Should this be a surprise? Probably not. Consider Bernie Sanders' surprise primary win there -- as well as Trump leading the way in nearby Ohio and Iowa, and a Democratic fear that African-American turnout has fallen off, which is key in vote-rich cities like Detroit and Flint. | | FLORIDA: Things are really, really tight. The good news for Clinton: She leads by 7,300 votes of the more than 5.7 million cast, per the Tampa Bay Times' Adam Smith. The bad news: Obama led by 104,000 at this point in 2012, and won by just 74,000 votes. Clinton had an event shortened by rain in Florida today.
The Latino vote could carry Clinton. "The story of this election may be the mobilization of the Hispanic vote," Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham told The New York Times' Jonathan Martin. "And they didn't come out for anybody as much as they came out against what they saw as racism. So Trump deserves the award for Hispanic turnout. He did more to get them out than any Democrat has ever done." The numbers, per Martin's report: "In Florida, at least 200,000 more Hispanics had voted early as of Friday than did during the entire early voting period four years ago, according to an analysis by Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who helped run President Obama's two campaigns here."
IN THE SPOTLIGHT NOW: States without robust early voting -- particularly Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Virginia, in addition to Michigan. | | "I think the FBI sadly has become like a leaky sieve." -- Tim Kaine, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, in an interview with Fusion's Alicia Menendez after a stop in Fort Myers, Florida. | | | From last night: President Barack Obama rebuked a crowd of Hillary Clinton supporters Friday after they shouted down a man holding a Donald Trump sign. "Hold up! Hold up! Hold up! Hold up!" Obama shouted over and over as the supporters drowned out his calls for order. "Everybody! Hey!" Obama yelled. "I told you to be focused and you're not focused right now." The President then reminded the crowd "we live in a country that respects free speech," adding the man looked like he possibly served in military, saying, "we ought to respect that."
Later, Donald Trump lied about what happened, claiming Obama was "really screaming" at the protester -- when, in fact, Obama was silencing Clinton supporters. | | An updated look at the candidates' schedules | | There's a lot to learn about how Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump see their paths to 270 electoral votes from where they're spending time in these closing days. So where will Clinton and Trump be? Here's a look:
CLINTON: She's announced Sunday events in Cleveland, Ohio -- with LeBron James set to appear -- and New Hampshire. On Monday, she's due in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and then Philadelphia -- with President Barack Obama, Michelle Obama and former President Bill Clinton joining her.
TRUMP: On Sunday, he'll be in Sioux City, Iowa, and then Minneapolis, Minnesota, followed by Sterling Heights, Michigan, then a Pittsburgh airport rally, then a late event in Leesburg, Virginia. On Monday, he's set for Sarasota, Florida, followed by Raleigh, North Carolina, then Scranton, Pennsylvania, then Manchester, New Hampshire, alongside Mike Pence.
An important note: Schedules are fluid at this stage of the race. Each candidate is likely to add stops -- and possibly remove stops, as well. | | | Long-time watchers of Bill Maher might be stunned by his admission that Mitt Romney, John McCain and even George W. Bush weren't so bad. | | Chris Christie benched amid Bridgegate woes | | | Per WMUR's John DiStaso in New Hampshire: "New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie canceled four New Hampshire campaign stops on behalf of Donald Trump for Saturday after two of Christie's top aides were convicted by a federal jury in connection with the 'Bridgegate' lane closing scandal." | | Supreme Court blocks Arizona 'ballot collection' | | | From CNN's Ariane de Vogue: The US Supreme Court on Saturday allowed an Arizona law barring organizers from picking up ballots and delivering them to election stations to remain in effect. The ruling is a blow to Democrats in the state who say the law could disenfranchise thousands of voters, especially in minority communities that rely upon neighbors and activists to collect and hand-deliver the ballots. | | | Former George W. Bush Press Secretary Ari Fleischer says he's not going to cast a vote for president this year. ... Melania Trump vouched for her husband Donald Trump's character in North Carolina today. ... An apparent faithless elector in Washington says he won't cast his electoral vote for Hillary Clinton, no matter the results. | | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Check out CNNMoney's Reliable Sources, an insider's look into the media brought to you by Brian Stelter. | | | Get the Nightcap, a comprehensive summary of the most important political news, delivered to your inbox daily. | | | | | |
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