| | | | Clinton vs. Trump: It's election night in America | | History will be made in America tonight. Either Hillary Clinton will be the first woman to become president in the nation's 240-year history or Donald Trump will score an unprecedented upset for outsiders and repudiate the Washington establishment in a way not seen in generations.
Stick with CNN tonight. Stephen Collinson is at the helm of our main story on the presidential race. Tal Kopan and Daniella Diaz are anchoring the live blog. And I've got your updates on Senate and House control. Here are all the ways to follow tonight's election with CNN.
Here's how tonight is going to go:
States' poll closures range from 6 p.m. ET in Indiana and Kentucky to 1 a.m. ET in Alaska. Here's a handy map from 270towin.com.
The first few calls could come in when seven states -- Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia, plus portions of Indiana and Kentucky that are on central time, as well as much of Florida (but not its largely Republican panhandle) -- close their polls. Half an hour later, polls close in battlegrounds North Carolina and Ohio, as well as West Virginia. At 8 p.m. ET, a long list of states, including the rest of Florida, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, close. And at 9 p.m., the battlegrounds of Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin close. At 10 p.m., the swing states wrap up when Iowa and Nevada close.
But the race wouldn't be called until after 11 p.m. ET, when California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon and Washington shut it down. If it's a true nail-biter, Alaska's 3 electoral votes could come into play when its polls close at 1 a.m. ET.
Florida and North Carolina will count fast -- that is, if history is a guide. In 2012, Florida had counted 75% of its vote by 9 p.m. ET, and North Carolina did so by 9:30 p.m. ET, The New York Times' Nate Cohn points out. What that means: If Clinton wins both, it's all but over. If Trump wins both, we'll be waiting and watching the industrial Midwest, which historically counts more slowly.
What about the popular vote? Cohn writes that because big cities and the state of California will be among the slowest to report, "Here's a simple rule of thumb: if Mrs. Clinton is even within 4 or 5 points in the popular vote between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m., she's probably going to win it."
Passing the time: President Barack Obama Facebooked his Election Day ritual: basketball. "I started an Election Day tradition on the court back in 2008. Not about to break it today. If you've got your own Election Day rituals, make sure one of them is casting your vote. It's the most important American tradition we've got. So go vote -- let's finish what we started 8 years ago," he wrote -- accompanying his message with this picture: | | | In case you were wondering ... who did South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump critic, vote for? | | | A fun tidbit from the Secret Service: | | "OK, I take it back. Polls aren't ONLY good for strippers and cross country skiers." -- Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, pointing out a poll showing Donald Trump surging in Michigan on Facebook. | | | | It's not too late to make your predictions. Go to CNN's interactive map and fill in how you think the night will go. Email me your choices at nightcap@cnn.com or tweet a screenshot to me at @ericbradner and I'll give a shout-out to whoever's closest. | | Here are the races that will decide control of the Senate | | Democrats need to pick up five seats in the Senate to wrest control away from majority Republicans -- or four if Hillary Clinton wins and Tim Kaine becomes the tie-breaking vote. Here's a look at the key races tonight:
Pennsylvania: Republican Sen. Pat Toomey hasn't said who he's voting for, and he is waiting until 6:45 p.m. ET -- 75 minutes before polls close -- to vote, denying Democrat Katie McGinty any last-minute opportunity to latch him to Donald Trump.
New Hampshire: Sen. Kelly Ayotte is attempting to fend off Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan -- and outperform Trump.
Wisconsin: GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has closed the gap in his contest with Russ Feingold in recent days.
Indiana: Former Sen. Evan Bayh's comeback bid has been haunted by residency questions and reports about his lobbying work. He's facing Republican Rep. Todd Young for the retiring Dan Coats' seat.
North Carolina: Republican Sen. Richard Burr will attempt to survive against Democrat Deborah Ross in a race that could swing with the Trump vs. Hillary Clinton contest.
Missouri: Democrat Jason Kander has run perhaps the party's best race against Republican Sen. Roy Blunt in a state Trump is all but assured of winning.
A few others bear watching, as well. Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk is the most likely Republican to fall. He said today he's writing in David Petraeus instead of Trump. In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is hoping an early vote advantage will help her hold Harry Reid's seat in the only competitive Democratic-held Senate race on 2016's map. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, appears likely to win his match with Democratic foe Patrick Murphy. I'll be updating this round-up of every competitive race all night. | | | Here's a way to help out the people stuck in long voting lines tonight: Send them pizza! The link is polls.pizza -- and Business Insider's Melia Robinson explains more about who's behind it and how it works. | | Poll watch: Trump's bizarre Nevada lawsuit thrown out | | From CNN's Ariane de Vogue: A Nevada court judge forcefully denied a request Tuesday from Donald Trump's campaign to direct a county registrar of voters to preserve and segregate ballots from voting machines in four early voting sites in the Las Vegas area where Latino voters showed up in record numbers.
The Trump campaign's argument: Early voting polls had stayed open late Friday to accommodate long lines. The problem with that argument: Nevada laws allow exactly that -- voters who join lines late on early voting days, while polling places are still open, can vote. Trump's lawyers asked the judge to direct County Registrar of Voters Joe P. Gloria not to mix those late Friday ballots in with others or count them -- but the judge said no. "I am not ordering him (Gloria) to preserve anything," she said, adding, "This is Election Day. He has other things to be doing."
The lawsuit was widely mocked by nonpartisan Nevada political observers like Jon Ralston, who called it a bid by the Trump campaign to call potentially unfavorable results into question: | | | CNN's Tom LoBianco has a live tracker of voting irregularities across the country. Check it out. | | | CNN's Political Prediction Market, Pivit, currently puts Hillary Clinton's odds of winning the presidency at 89% to Donald Trump's 11%. It has Democrats' odds of winning control of the Senate at 79% to Republicans' 21% odds of retaining their majority. | | | Donald Trump stole a glance at Melania Trump's ballot -- and America noticed. ... Hillary Clinton-style pantsuits and Trump "Make America Great Again" hats are all the rage at the ballot box today. ... Hundreds flocked to the grave of Susan B. Anthony, the pioneering women's suffrage activist, on the day the United States could elect its first female president. | | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Check out CNNMoney's Reliable Sources, an insider's look into the media brought to you by Brian Stelter. | | | Get the Nightcap, a comprehensive summary of the most important political news, delivered to your inbox daily. | | | | | |
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