The Point: Why the 2020 election is already very different


August 19, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Why the 2020 election is already very different

The 2020 election isn't for another 442 days. But people are ready!

Almost 6 in 10 respondents in a new Fox News national poll say they are "extremely" interested in the 2020 election. Reminder: The election isn't until NEXT November 3.

That number -- 57%, to be exact -- is all the more remarkable when you compare it with past data on voter interest in elections.

In a Fox News poll conducted November 3-6, 2016 -- so, days before the last presidential election -- only 54% said they were "extremely" interested in the race. In October 2016, the number was 45%. In June 2016 it was 39%. And in June 2015 -- roughly where we are right now in the 2020 cycle -- just 3 in 10 people said they were "extremely" interested in the presidential contest.

Go back four more years and the comparison is even more stark. An October 2012 Fox News poll showed 51% saying they were "extremely" interested in the presidential contest. Just 32% said the same in September 2011.

What explains this amazingly interested electorate? Two words: Donald Trump.

Yes, Trump was on the ballot in 2016 -- when voter interest was far lower, even on the eve of the election, than it is now -- but the broad expectation was that he was going to lose, and maybe do so in a landslide. Now, two and a half years into Trump's presidency, everyone knows what a Trump presidency looks like and can do in the country.

In fact, both parties seem to have already come to view the 2020 race as the most important in their lifetimes. For Democrats, it represents a chance to not only right a wrong but also to send a message to the country and the world that the United States is better than what Trump has done over his first four years in office. For Republicans, 2020 is their opportunity to prove that 2016 wasn't a fluke -- that the "forgotten men and women" (in Trump's words) are still out there, still support the President and still have something to prove to the mainstream media, the Democrats and elites of all stripes and sizes.

There is no question -- on either side -- of the stakes. Which is how you get an electorate already following this election more closely than they did in the final days of each of the last two elections.

The Point: My expectation is that turnout is going to be massive in 2020, way outpacing the 61.4% of eligible voters who turned out in 2016.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I strongly hope that this is not meant seriously."

-- Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on President Trump's interest in buying Greenland.

WARREN APOLOGIZES

Since announcing her presidential run, Elizabeth Warren's Native American heritage (and her rocky rollout of DNA test results) have not slowed down her rise to the front of the pack. Warren has instead publicly leaned in to releasing plans to tackle any number of issues.

But today, Warren circled back to the issue and publicly apologized

"Like anyone who's being honest with themselves, I know that I have made mistakes. I am sorry for harm I have caused," the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate said. "I have listened and I have learned -- a lot. And I am grateful for the many conversations that we've had together."

🎧 Lauren has more on how Warren got here in today's podcast.
🖋️ Chris writes why Warren's second go at the issue is smart.


CHRIS' GOOD READS

Todd Purdum on what Bill Clinton's future holds

Mike Pompeo knows how to keep Donald Trump happy, reports Susan Glasser

Trump turns on everyone eventually

The Des Moines Register came away very impressed with Michael Bennet

How Pepe the Frog became a thing in the Hong Kong protests

Gamer-gate -- and why it matters so much -- as explained by Timesman' Charlie Warzel

Understanding Joe Rogan's massive popularity

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Three (!) more tracks from the new Lumineers album. And yes, the Lumineers are a great band, no matter what Leigh Munsil says.

BRIDGING THE PARTISAN DIVIDE

Chris Christie's second act doesn't involve the White House. Instead, he'll be building bridges rather than shutting them down.  

That's because the former New Jersey governor is opening the Christie Institute of Public Policy, a nonprofit, nonpartisan institute, in part with his alma mater, Seton Hall University School of Law.

The goal of the institute? Bringing civility back to politics.

LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST

Bernie Sanders: Would ban police from using facial recognition software in a newly released criminal justice plan.

Mark Sanford: Is considering challenging Trump in the Republican primary but said he would still vote for Trump over a Democrat in 2020.

Cory Booker: Got some fundraising help from rocker Bon Jovi, who hosted a fundraiser at his Easthampton home for Booker. 

Julián Castro: Released a plan to protect animals and wildlife, including ending the euthanasia of domestic dogs and cats.

Steve Bullock: Was endorsed by a consortium of Native American tribes across Montana, Idaho and Wyoming.

Amy Klobuchar: Announced endorsements including one from Minnesota Lieutenant Governor and citizen of the White Earth Nation of Ojibwe Peggy Flanagan.

ONE BIG THING

$120,000


The amount of money President Barack Obama's high school basketball jersey sold for at auction. 

Obama wore the jersey during his senior year at Punahou School in Honolulu as a member of the 1979 Hawaii State Champion boys' varsity basketball team.
We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter.
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