The Point: Joe Biden blew it last debate. Now what?

View this email in your browser July 31, 2019  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski Welcome to a special debate edition of The Point, all about tonight's second round of the latest Democratic debates, hosted by CNN. The event kicks off in Detroit at 8 p.m. Eastern. Tune in! Joe Biden blew it last debate. Now what? In the first presidential debates last month, Joe Biden was, uh, not good. The former vice president was halting in his answers and, in a brutal exchange with California Sen. Kamala Harris, seemed incapable of defending his record on school busing. Lucky for Biden, he gets a second chance on the debate stage in Detroit tonight. If he puts in a similar performance, he might find his grasp on the front-runner mantle slipping. His aides are promising that ain't gonna happen. He is ready for "flat-out lies and distortions" by the other candidates, a Biden official told CNN Wednesday. "He was expecting better than that from the field," added the source of the former VP. "And so now I think it's very clear there are no rules and you have to be prepared for mischaracterizations." I've said it before and I'll say it again: Promising you are going to fight back is one thing. Effectively doing so is a whole other thing.  The one big difference between last month's debate and this month's debate is that Biden can't help but be aware of the stakes for him. Another performance even close to his June showing and the storyline that the former vice president is too old or too out-of-touch with where the party is now will go from whispers to roars. What Biden has going for him right now is that his support, which clearly took a hit in the wake of his first debate performance, appears to have bounced back nicely. A Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this week showed Biden at 34%, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) in second place, but at just 15%.  Biden can't reasonably hope that his numbers will rebound again if he doesn't show he has the fight in him tonight. The Point: It's hard to call something "make-or-break" in July 2019 for a race where no votes will be cast until February 2020. But momentum and inertia really matter in presidential races. And that's why tonight's debate matters so much for Biden. -- Chris THE WILD CARD Sen. Kamala Harris enjoyed a healthy post-debate bump in the polls and spike in donations after her successful tango with Biden in the first debate. But it's looking like she's planning to avoid that playbook this time around. "I kind of expect Senator Harris to take a more presidential approach to the debate and only smack when being attacked — which may be frequently," Harris supporter Bakari Sellers recently told The Washington Post. What that looks like, however, stands to be seen. Harris' sparring with Biden in the first debate popped the former VP's front-runner bubble -- and his team is making it clear Biden is ready for the attacks this time around. Nonetheless, Harris is in a better position than most onstage because she'll be back. Unlike many others, she has already qualified for the next round of debates. -- Lauren 2020 LINKAGE Winners and losers from night one of the debate That smudge on Pete Buttigieg's head was probably a dead gnat Marianne Williamson is the best thing on the internet, Chris writes 🎧  Who's going after Biden tonight? Lauren has more in The Point podcast HOW DID THEY PREPARE? 🤐 Julián Castro isn't sharing any secrets -- Stephen Colbert asked last week about who he'll go after in the debate, and Castro replied, "Can't tell you that." 🥑 Bill de Blasio is fueling up with chips and guacamole, mixed nuts and water. 💬 Andrew Yang jokingly tweeted about going after Michael Bennet in the debate. MARKETING A MOMENT Candidates who pull off a coveted "moment" onstage are often quick to turn an especially fiery exchange -- or good one-liner -- into campaign merchandise. The revenue raised from supporters who buy that merch, crucially, counts toward a candidate's overall campaign contributions. And the number of campaign contributions helps determine who will be on the next round of debate stages. We already have at least two instances of new swag come out of the first night of debates: Tim Ryan's "YOU DON'T HAVE TO YELL" sticker pack and Bernie Sanders' "I wrote the damn bill" sticker. Surely there will be more merch to come from tonight's round!  YOUR DAILY GIF From Brenna: "Well, last night was something. Didn't see this exchange coming. Share The Point with someone who is THIS excited for the second night of debates!" We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. Follow Chris and Lauren on Twitter. Subscribe to The Point unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences  Copyright © 2019 Cable News Network, LP, LLLP. A WarnerMedia Company. All Rights Reserved., All rights reserved. You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Our mailing address is: Cable News Network, LP, LLLP. A WarnerMedia Company. All Rights Reserved. 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