| | | | Karl Rove is right |  | | Say what you will about Karl Rove -- and people say all sorts of things -- but his political track record makes clear that he's someone who should be listened to. Rove was, after all, the architect of George W. Bush's two presidential campaigns, and warned about the need to broaden the Republican Party's coalition beyond whites more than a decade ago.
So I was intrigued when I came across these comments Rove made at a post-2018 election conference in Sea Island, Georgia:
"We've got to be worried about what's happening in the suburbs. We get wiped out in the Dallas suburbs, Houston suburbs, Chicago suburbs, Denver suburbs -- you know there's a pattern -- Detroit suburbs, Minneapolis suburbs, Orange County, California, suburbs. When we start to lose in the suburbs, it says something to us. We can't replace all of those people by simply picking up (Minnesota's First Congressional District) -- farm country and the Iron range of Minnesota -- because, frankly, there's more growth in suburban areas than there is in rural areas."
Rove is exactly 100% right.
In the 2018 election, Democrats gained a slew of former Republican-held seats in the suburbs -- from Atlanta to the Twin Cities to Philadelphia to Chicago. According to the exit polling, suburban voters made up a majority (51%) of the overall electorate -- up 2 points from 2016. And unlike in 2016, when Donald Trump carried suburban voters by 4 points, in 2018 suburbanites split their votes right down the middle -- 49% for Republican House candidates, 40% for Democratic ones.
In 2014, the last midterm election, suburban voters made up 52% of the electorate but went for Republican candidates by 12 points. That's the same margin that Republicans won suburban voters by in the 2010 election.
You get the idea. Among a group that comprises 50-ish% of the electorate, Republicans have lost their one-time (and longtime) edge.
In his remarks, Rove said vaguely that the party needed to figure out why it had lost its suburban superiority. But the actual answer (as I strongly suspect Rove knows) is actually quite simple: Suburbanites -- especially suburban women -- have a very negative view of President Trump, and that dislike is what is driving them away from the party that had long aligned with their own fiscal interests.
Women, who made up 52% of the national House electorate on Tuesday, went for Democratic candidates over Republican ones by 19 points. Four years earlier, in the last pre-Trump midterm election, Democratic candidates only outpaced Republicans among women by 4 points. You do the math.
The Point: Way back in 2000, Rove -- and Bush -- warned the GOP of the long-term problems for the party of its predominantly white and male base. The party didn't listen and, in fact, went the other way by nominating Trump in 2016. Eighteen years after his first warning, Rove is warning his side of another demographic catastrophe looming on the horizon. Will they listen to him this time?
-- Chris | | "As we travel to Washington for this lame duck period, House Democrats are anything but lame ducks."
-- Nancy Pelosi, in a letter to the new class of House Democrats, urging them to "stay unified" as Pelosi's race for speaker looms. She remains unchallenged in her bid for House Speaker. | | | RUMBLE IN THE SUNSHINE STATE 🏖 | | It's official: The Florida recounts are on!
And tensions are rising: In the highly contested and very close Senate race, Republicans are claiming "fraud" and Democrats are calling Republican Gov. Rick Scott a "dictator."
A flurry of legal challenges are also being thrown into the mix as Scott has pushed law enforcement to seize ballots and voting machines in Broward and Palm Beach counties. Scott has also filed a lawsuit saying the law that requires signatures for mail-in ballots is unconstitutional -- and will have a hearing in federal court on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, election officials are racing to meet the state's Thursday deadline after beginning the recount just this weekend.
Also this weekend, Democratic candidate for governor Andrew Gillum withdrew his concession as he continues to trail in the polls to Republican Ron DeSantis -- and weighs potential legal action.
President Trump, meanwhile, tweeted that the races should be called for the Republicans, Scott and DeSantis.
There's a lot of moving parts -- here's a roundup of what you need to know about the Florida recounts. | | | The White Album came out 50 years ago. The remixed version -- in the able hands of Giles Martin, the son of fifth Beatle George Martin -- is mind-expanding when it comes to this too-often overlooked album. You can listen to the whole thing here. | |  | | Today's topic: What Trump's 2018 reaction tells us about 2020. (Hint: Nothing good) | | Florida doesn't get to have all the fun with still-to-be-resolved races.
Arizona is still slowly counting its ballots (the bulk of which are sent through the mail, making tabulation a painstaking process) -- especially in the close Senate contest between Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally.
As of this afternoon, Sinema's lead had widened to 31,666 votes -- a margin of 1.5% with roughly 90% of the vote in. | |
DEFEATED CONGRESSMAN BLAMES MCCAIN | | So much for Minnesota nice.
Minnesota Rep. Jason Lewis, unseated by a Democrat this fall, laid the blame for GOP losses at the feet of late Sen. John McCain -- and McCain's vote against the Republican-led Obamacare repeal in 2017 -- in a Wall Street Journal op-ed published on Veteran's Day.
"MCain's last-minute decision prompted a 'green wave' of liberal special-interest money, which was used to propagate false claims that the House plan 'gutted coverage for people with pre-existing conditions,'" Lewis wrote.
McCain's daughter Meghan McCain fired back on Twitter: "This is abhorrent."
Lewis, who was defeated by Democrat Angie Craig in the state's second district, attracted some national attention after a CNN review of a radio program found that Lewis had a history of misogynistic comments and once complained about not being able to call women "sluts." | |  | He's running!
West Virginia Democrat Richard Ojeda may have lost his bid for Congress this year, but that isn't stopping him from dipping his toe into a little presidential speculation.
Ojeda teased a potential run to supporters in an email Sunday night and has filed to run for president.
As CNN's Dan Merica notes: "Ojeda's entry to the race is unexpected and highlights just how massive the Democratic field for President will be in 2020. Democratic operatives believe big-name candidates will announce presidential bids in early 2019, but fully expect candidates like Ojeda and others to explore a run starting in late 2018. ... But getting through a Democratic primary could be difficult: Ojeda voted for Trump in 2016, something that may be beyond the pale for some Democrats." | | Massachusetts governor-turned GOP presidential candidate-turned-Utah-Senator-elect Mitt Romney was spotted scoping out his new neighborhood.
CNN's Elizabeth Landers tweets: "Just ran into @MittRomney walking by himself behind the Library of Congress- he seemed excited about orientation and says he has to figure out where he's going to live here in DC." | | | | | | |
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