| | | | 5 key numbers from the 2018 exit poll |  | | I'm still sifting through all the data about the electorate on Tuesday night -- so MUCH more to come on this -- but I wanted to share a few of the numbers that really stood out to me from the exit polling.
(For an explanation of exit polling and why it's so useful in understanding the electorate, check this out.)
1. Republicans have an age problem
In the national House exit poll, Republicans got crushed among young people -- taking just 32% as compared to 67% for Democrats among those aged 18 to 29. But it's more than just the youngest segment of the electorate where Republicans are struggling. Among voters aged 18-44 -- at 42 years old myself, I'd say that includes people who are no spring chickens -- Democrats took 61%, while Republicans got just 36%.
2. White women are swing votes
One of President Donald Trump's saving graces in the 2016 election was white women, who made up 37% of the electorate and voted for him over Hillary Clinton by 9 points. In Tuesday's election, white women again comprised 37% of the electorate, but this time they split their votes: 49% for Democrats, 49% for Republicans.
3. More people (still) identify as Democrats
Asked what party they identify with by exit pollsters, 37% said Democrats, 33% said Republicans and 30% called themselves independents. Those numbers were very similar to where party ID was in 2016: 36% Democratic, 33% Republican and 31% independent.
4. Democrats made gains among married women
In 2016, Trump lost married women by only 2 points. In 2018, Republicans lost them by 10 -- perhaps a sign of the broader erosion for Republicans -- due in large part to Trump -- in the suburbs.
5. Almost 1 in 5 voters were new
Fully 16% of respondents said that 2018 was the first midterm election they had ever voted in. Some of those are young people who turned 18 sometime between 2014 and 2018, but lots more were part of Democrats' attempts to broaden the electorate. It worked; first-time midterm voters chose Democratic candidate by 26 points over Republicans.
The Point: First, I am a numbers nerd and absolutely love this stuff. Second, there's a lot of good news heading into 2020 for Democrats in my first run-through of the exits.
-- Chris | | "Despite my mother reminding me I'm jobless, single and lived out of an RV the last six months, I am going to be OK. "
-- Iowa Democrat J.D. Scholten, who lost to GOP Rep. Steve King in Tuesday's midterms, tweeted his thanks to his supporters. | | | A key federal appeals court ruled today that the Trump administration can't end DACA.
DACA, harshly criticized by the Trump administration, is the Obama-era policy short for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals.
It also means that the nationwide injunction allowing DACA to continue is still in effect. President Trump has said he wants to see what the Supreme Court says on the matter. | |  | Why women won big in the midterm elections | | | Female candidates on both sides of the aisle cleaned up in the midterm elections on Tuesday night. Female voters helped them do it. Chris breaks down 2018's historic firsts, only on YouTube. Subscribe for more! | | | With Rod Rosenstein back in the news, it gives us a chance to re-up Ben Folds' homage to the deputy attorney general: "Mr. Peepers." | | Chris may not look like that psychic octopus that predicts the World Cup winner, but he did correctly predict months ago the exact date that President Trump would fire Jeff Sessions.
As Chris wrote back in August: "Circle November 7 on your calendar. And don't be surprised if Sessions is gone on (or around) that day."
Sessions was fired on November 7.
We're now anxiously awaiting his prediction on who wins the Super Bowl ... | | Nearly two decades after its most infamous recount, Florida is back in the recount game.
The state's contests for governor and Senate appear headed for recounts, triggered automatically when the margin of victory is within 0.5%.
The Senate race could be headed to a hand recount, aka a recount BY HAND, thanks to the 17,000-vote difference between Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Scott is convinced that he'll remain in the lead even when all votes are counted.
And on the governor's side, despite Democrat Andrew Gillum's concession on Tuesday, his team has backtracked and is now open to a recount. His deficit to Republican Ron DeSantis is down to 38,000 votes, within that 0.5% threshold.
The recounts have not yet been officially authorized. | | Among the names being floated to replace Jeff Sessions: former New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi.
Both Christie and Bondi were said to be under consideration for the AG role when Trump was elected.
And despite a bumpy relationship with Trump and adviser Jared Kushner, Christie was at the White House as recently as today (for a law enforcement roundtable on prison reform efforts). | |  | | From Brenna: "Raise your hand if this situation wouldn't have gone as well for you as it did for DNC Chair Tom Perez. 🙋 Share a wine glass full of OJ (and The Point) with your friends!" | | | | | | |
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