| | | | 8 big questions for Election Day |  | | The election is tomorrow! The election is tomorrow!
And, yes, obviously I am super excited about it. I waited two years for tomorrow -- when we can see what the country thinks about President Donald Trump, the Republican majorities in Congress, the Democratic minority and the general state of the country.
No election answers every question. And every election poses new questions we weren't even thinking about 24 hours earlier. But national elections are a pinch point in our long-running national experiment with democracy. They allow us to stop, look and think -- about where we were, where we're going and why, why, why people act and vote like they do. (Like I said, elections don't answer all of those questions.)
Below, eight questions I hope this election answers. And because you've got a lot going on -- the election is tomorrow! -- I've added just a single sentence (or two) after each for the sake of context.
1. How hard will women turn against Trump? In 2016, Trump won 41% of women. In the latest CNN poll, his approval rating is just 31% among women; and women choose a generic Democratic candidate for Congress over a generic Republican one by a massive 62%-35% margin.
2. Can Trump's all-base-all-the-time strategy work? Trump is closing the campaign on immigration with a dash of racial animus thrown in. That formula worked to turn his base out in 2016, but will it do the trick again?
3. Can Democrats win a working House majority? Most Democratic strategists would be perfectly happy to pick up just the 23 seats they need to retake the majority they lost in 2010. But such a slim majority would make the House totally ungovernable; to truly control the House, Democrats would need gains upward of 35-40 seats.
4. Do Republicans cling to the Senate? Two years ago, if I told any Republican Senate strategists that they would gain two Senate seats on November 6, 2018, most would call that a bad night. But expectations have been so lowered now that if Republicans actually add to their 51-49 current edge, Trump -- and Senate GOP leaders -- will seize on it as a MAJOR victory.
5. Did either side win the turnout war? Remember that in 2014, just 36.4% of people eligible to vote actually voted. That number was only marginally better in 2006 and 2010. We haven't had a midterm election in almost two decades where more than 4(ish) in 10 eligible voters actually voted; is this the year that breaks that bad trend?
6. Did Trump make a positive difference anywhere? A very smart Republican operative told me in the spring that polling showed that Trump attacking a candidate could do real damage, but Trump endorsing a candidate had much less influence in building that candidate up. Trump's visits in the final days on behalf of Mike Braun in Indiana, Josh Hawley in Missouri, Matt Rosendale in Montana and Rick Scott in Florida will put that theory to the test.
7. Is this the health care election? The immigration election? The economy election? Democrats want it to be the first. Trump wants it to be the second. Congressional Republicans want it to be the third. Are any of them right?
8. What will Donald Trump do next? Midterm elections are usually tough for the president's party. There's every indication this one will be that. Most re-position to reflect the lessons they learned (Clinton in 1995, Obama in 2011) and to get themselves right in the eyes of voters before their own re-election. But Trump isn't someone who admits he was ever wrong. How will he handle a loss?
The Point: This is a massive moment in our shared political history and future. What we learn tomorrow will inform not just the second half of Trump's first term, but also what Democrats do in response to the chief executive. And, most importantly, how the voters react to it all.
-- Chris | | "I'll be a resident of Florida if Janet Mills wins, I can promise you that. I'll also be in Florida if Shawn Moody wins because I am going to retire and go to Florida. I am done with politics."
-- Soon-to-be-former Maine Gov. Paul LePage, who said today that he plans to move to Florida after the election regardless of who replaces him. | | | President Donald Trump has held 84 political events so far in 2018 (including his three rallies today). Let's break that down a little more: - 13 were fundraisers
- 43 of those events were rallies
- That's more than 4 rallies a month over the last year -- though the bulk of Trump's events have happened post-Labor Day, as the midterm season has ramped up
- Trump's rallies were in 23 states
- Most-visited states: Indiana and Montana, with four stops each
Information courtesy of CNN's Betsy Klein and Steve Brusk. | | | In 2016, Chris made an Election Day playlist. It's still really good, and totally works for tomorrow. | | We've got a handle on the top five donors who dropped millions of dollars 💸 into campaign coffers this cycle: - Sheldon Adelson and Miriam Adelson donated $113 million to Republicans
- Tom Steyer and Kathryn Ann Fahr donated $51 million to Democrats
- Richard Uihlein and Elizabeth Uline donated $39 million to Republicans
- Michael Bloomberg donated $38 million to Democrats
- Donald Sussman donated $23 million to Democrats
Data from OpenSecrets and the Center for Responsive Politics. | | It looks like President Trump will get his wish.
After entreating voters to turn out as if he himself is on the ballot this November, 7 in 10 people say they will send a message about Trump (either positive or negative) with their votes, according to new polling from CNN and SSRS.
Overall, 42% of likely voters say they'll express opposition to the President, while 28% say they will show support. | |  | So you want to tell the world you just voted -- but in some states like Ohio and Georgia, ballot selfies are actually illegal.
Before you post that pic, catch up on your state's laws. | |
INSIDE TRUMP'S PIVOT TO IMMIGRATION | | As Republicans framed their closing arguments of the midterms, President Trump's campaign advisers wanted something positive, focusing on the booming economy.
Trump "hated" it, a GOP source told CNN's Jeff Zeleny. It also did not feature the President.
While Trump signed off on his campaign's marquee ad, buoyed by a $6 million nationwide ad buy, the President preferred to have something that instead spoke to his base, Zeleny reports.
The President instead has promoted another ad through his personal Twitter account -- already deemed by networks including CNN, Fox and NBC as too controversial. | | | | | | |
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