| | | | Republicans' chances in 2018 just keep getting bleaker | | The relevant question at this point in the 2018 election -- 55 days before the vote -- is not whether this will be a good election for House Democrats, but rather, how good an election it will be.
And, according to three new national polls released over the last 24 hours, the answer to that is: A very, very good election.
A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Democrats with a 52% to 38% edge on the generic ballot question. ("Would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?"). An NPR/Marist poll showed a similar 12-point margin on the generic ballot. A Politico/Morning Consult survey showed Democrats with a 10-point bulge.
Historically, the generic ballot is regarded as a weathervane that, generally speaking, predicts which direction the wind is blowing -- and how hard -- in the national environment. While Democrats regularly enjoy a small edge in the generic ballot, double-digit leads for Democrats usually predict major seat swings.
In 2006, when Democrats won 30 seats and retook the House majority, Democrats had an 11.5 point edge in the generic ballot. In 2010, when Republicans won more than 5 dozen seats (and the majority), they ended the election with a 9-point bulge in the generic ballot.
In isolation, the generic ballot might not spell total doom and gloom. But when you consider the fact that in only three midterm elections since the end of the Civil War has the President's party not lost House seats, and the fact that President Trump is now in the mid to upper 30s in job approval, you grasp that the first Tuesday in November is starting to look very, very dark for Republicans.
The Point: Could things change? Sure. The possibility for change exists all the way until the final weekend of any election. But traditionally, dynamics like the generic ballot don't change all that much once the fall arrives. Republicans have to hope against hope that this year is a historical anomaly. It may be the best (only?) hope they have left.
-- Chris | | "I think I could beat Trump ... because I'm as tough as he is, I'm smarter than he is."
-- JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon at an event in New York City on Wednesday. In the same interview, he clarified he was not going to run for president, and as Chris put it, apologized for "speaking his mind." | | | 5 LIKELY SENATE SCENARIOS | | Election Day 2018 is only about eight weeks away -- but the fight for the Senate majority remains largely a toss-up.
Chris breaks down five possible ways the battle for power could play out: - Scenario #1: Republican best case (R+3 seats)
- Republicans lose a GOP seat in Nevada but hold Tennessee, Texas and Arizona. Republicans win Democratic seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.
- Scenario #2: Democratic best case (D+3)
- Democrats lose only one incumbent -- Heitkamp (D) -- and clean sweep their four GOP pickup opportunities, with Texas and Tennessee looking like the tougher two wins.
- Scenario #3: A great night for Dmocrats (D+2)
- Democrats lose Heitkamp but win GOP seats in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee.
- Scenario #4: A wash (No net gain of loss)
- Republicans lose their two most vulnerable seats in Arizona and Nevada. Democrats lose their two most vulnerable seats in North Dakota and Florida.
- Scenario #5: Tie! (D+1)
- Republicans lose in Arizona, Nevada and Tennessee but win Democratic-held seats in Florida and North Dakota.
Read his full analysis here.
In other midterms news, CNN's Ed Lavandera and Jason Morris report from Austin, Texas, on the Democratic Party's most buzzed-about rising star -- Beto O'Rourke -- and ask whether that buzz can translate into votes. | | | New music from The Mountain Goats!! Go listen to all four songs on the Hex of Infinite Binding EP. Bonus points if you can tell us which woodwind(?) instrument is on the second half of the first track. | | | Today's topic: Putting Cynthia Nixon's bagel order to the (taste) test. | | | From CNN's Katelyn Polantz: "Despite some murmurs that former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort could try to avoid his upcoming trial, special counsel Robert Mueller's team is pressing forward."
Manafort faces a second set of charges in DC, including failing to register as a lobbyist for a foreign country and witness tampering. He has pleaded not guilty to the charges.
"Wednesday morning, prosecutors filed a list of evidence they'd like to present at the trial, such as charts, photographs, memos for his Ukrainian oligarch employers and phone records," Polantz reports. The charges are being brought forth by Mueller's team -- which is currently leading the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Trump has repeatedly denied any collusion, and on Wednesday, CNN's Kevin Liptak reported that Trump signed an executive order aimed at punishing foreign entities for interfering in United States' elections.
Liptak writes: "The order, which will allow new sanctions against Russian or other foreign actors, was inked on Wednesday morning. The White House hopes the order will help dispel the notion that Trump has allowed election meddling to go unchallenged.
"Both Republicans and Democrats criticized the move as insufficient, however."
In other Mueller-related news ...
According to CNN's Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS shows Mueller's approval rating for handling the Russia investigation stands at 50% -- outpacing Trump's approval rating on the matter by 20 points. | | Stormy Daniels is writing a book, and she says it will include details that the public hasn't heard, Sara Sidner and Patricia DiCarlo report.
The book, titled "Full Disclosure," is scheduled to go on sale October 2, according to Daniels.
"Everybody knows that a lot of the '60 Minutes' (interview) was cut down for time and there are things that I said in my interview that I really wanted people to know that are very important to me that I didn't get to say," Daniels said Wednesday on ABC's "The View."
"I was like, I'm going to write everything and include it, and people can think what they want about me. But at least it's the truth," Daniels said.
Just for reference: Daniels, a porn star, sued the President over a non-disclosure agreement over an alleged sexual encounter she had with Trump years prior to his run for office. Trump's former personal attorney Michael Cohen paid Daniels $130,000 for her silence through a shell corporation ahead of the 2016 election. Her claim? The agreement is null because Trump never signed it himself. | | "A Mike Tyson punch" -- that's how Hurricane Florence's potential impact on the Carolina coast is being described by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
CNN's Jason Hanna, Kaylee Hartung and Faith Karimi report that Florence -- a Category 3 hurricane -- is expected to deliver tropical-storm-force winds to North Carolina on Thursday, and hurricane-force winds by Thursday night or Friday morning. More than 1 million people are under mandatory evacuations in the Carolinas and Virginia.
"This will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the Carolina coast, and that's saying a lot given the impacts we've seen from Hurricanes Diana, Hugo, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd and Matthew," the National Weather Service in Wilmington, North Carolina, said Tuesday.
Follow live updates on the storm here.
President Trump tweeted about the storm this morning: "Hurricane Florence may now be dipping a bit south and hitting a portion of the Great State of Georgia. Be ready, be prepared!"
And as Hurricane Florence barrels toward the Eastern seaboard, officials from the Federal Emergency Management Agency on Wednesday denied that a transfer of funds to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement would impact the agency's hurricane response.
CNN's Betsy Klein and Tal Kopan report:
"Officials from the Federal Emergency Management Agency insisted Wednesday that the transfer of nearly $10 million of its budget to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement will not affect the agency's hurricane response and other disaster relief efforts."
Klein and Kopan point out that the Trump administration "has a fraught track record when it comes to hurricane relief."
"An estimated nearly 3,000 Puerto Ricans died in the wake of Hurricane Maria last year and many -- including the San Juan mayor -- have been critical of what they call a lackluster and underwhelming response to the devastation."
But FEMA Administrator Brock Long is insisting the money did not come out of the disaster relief fund.
"It does not come out of the disaster relief fund that funds everything behind me and in the field, so it's a nonissue for us at this moment," Long told ABC News. | | | From Brenna: "I would be more nervous than Vice President Pence appears to be about being one of the only people without a hard hat on. But I don't have the Secret Service watching out for me. Watch out for your friends by telling them to subscribe to The Point." | | | | | | |
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