| | | | Donald Trump is losing that change-y thing | | | Donald Trump won the 2016 election for one very simple reason: People wanted radical change and he was the candidate who offered that change.
The exit poll tells that story clearly. Almost 4 in 10 voters said the trait most important to them in deciding their vote was that the candidate could bring about change. Among that group, Trump took 82% to 14% for Clinton. That's the entire election right there.
Trump's greatest strength as a candidate -- and as President -- was the belief that he was going to shake things up. That he was a change agent, a heat-seeking missile aimed directly at the status quo.
Which is why new numbers from a national CNN poll have to be very concerning for Trump. Yes, his overall job approval rating is down to 36%, a 6-point drop since last month and the lowest he's been since February. That's concerning not just for Trump but for Republicans on the ballot this fall who are hoping Trump's approval numbers will be inching upward rather than downward with less than 12 weeks left before November 6.
The roots of that rising disapproval may well be in the "change agent" question. Check out Trump's fade on the issue via CNN polling on the question of whether Trump can "bring about the kind of change the country needs:" - November 17-20, 2016: 49% applies to Trump/49% does not apply to Trump
- April 22-25, 2017: 48%/51%
- August 3-6, 2017: 43%/55%
- November 2-5, 2017: 40%/56%
- March 22-25, 2018: 45%/52%
- September 6-9, 2018: 40%/57%
That's not a trend line that will bring a lot of smiles to the White House. Of course, it's also a somewhat predictable decline given that Trump essentially promised to destroy Washington as we know it before coming into office. Making that sort of pledge works in the setting of a campaign -- especially when people are mad as hell at both parties and are in a mood to do the opposite of what Washington has been doing for decades.
The problem with campaigning as the change candidate is that you then have to be president. And making good on all the change you promised is virtually impossible -- because a) the bureaucracy is a very big thing to tackle and b) "change" doesn't mean the same thing to any two people who voted for Trump because of it.
The Point: Keep an eye on any and all questions in polls between now and 2020 that ask whether people view Trump as a change agent and/or whether they believe he has brought the right change to Washington. That could well be the determining factor in whether Trump gets a second term.
-- Chris | | "So they call him Mister Peepers
As the thugs all smash his glasses
Going full Lord of the Flies
Burning this island down to ashes
What's the rule of law if we can't agree on what a fact is?"
-- Ben Folds, singing the chorus of his song, "Mister Peepers," about Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and his battle with Republicans during the Russia investigation. Seriously. | | | TRUMP APPROVAL TAKES A TUMBLE | | Here's what caught the attention of CNN Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta:
"Overall, just 36% approve of the way the President is handling his job, down from 42% in August," she writes today. "Among independents, the drop has been sharper, from 47% approval last month to 31% now. That's 4 points below his previous 2018 low of 35% approval among political independents in CNN polling, and 1 point below his previous all-time low among independents in CNN polling, reached in November 2017."
And when it comes to the anonymous NYT op-ed writer, nearly 6 in 10 Americans want the secret scribe to out him or herself. But, as ever, the answers follow a partisan divide:
 | | | John Legend became the first black man to EGOT after winning a Creative Arts Emmy on Sunday. Take a listen to "Glory" from the movie "Selma," which earned him an Oscar in 2015. | | TRUMP ADMINISTRATION JABS PALESTINIANS -- AGAIN | | The Trump administration is shuttering the Palestine Liberation Organization office in Washington.
It's the latest in a series of steps taken by the White House that has pleased Israel and angered Palestinians (and global mediators), most notably:
Relocating the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and ending all funding to the UN agency tasked with supporting Palestinian refugees.
Said the State Department: "The PLO has not taken steps to advance the start of direct and meaningful negotiations with Israel. ... To the contrary, PLO leadership has condemned a US peace plan they have not yet seen and refused to engage with the US government with respect to peace efforts and otherwise."
Said the PLO: "This dangerous escalation shows that the US is willing to disband the international system in order to protect Israeli crimes and attacks against the land and people of Palestine, as well as against peace and security in the rest of our region."
CNN'S Elise Labott and Hilary Clarke have the full story here, including how the International Criminal Court's fate is also at stake. | | EXCLUSIVE: WHITE HOUSE PHONE FOLLIES | | On the eve of the official release of Bob Woodward's book, we're getting some news on the fallout after the release of former WH staffer and reality TV star Omarosa Manigault Newman's own bombshell book -- from waaaaay back in August.
CNN's Kaitlin Collins has the scoop on the latest intrigue:
"After Omarosa Manigault Newman revealed last month that she secretly taped White House chief of staff John Kelly as he fired her in the Situation Room, a change was made to the West Wing's phone policy.
"Going forward, staffers would not be allowed to leave their phones -- even the government-issued ones -- in lockers in the small entry area outside the Situation Room, as they had done for the previous 19 months of the administration. Instead, staffers were directed to go back and put their White House-issued devices in their offices or alongside their personal phones in lockers stationed near the West Wing entrances before being buzzed into the Situation Room.
"This change was made quietly, but two senior administration officials told CNN they believed it was in direct response to the news that Manigualt Newman had taped Kelly."
The White House staff snake pit just keeps getting more venomous, per Chris. | | NEW YORK'S PROGRESSIVES IN A PINCH AS PRIMARY NEARS | | New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is poised to defeat progressive challenger Cynthia Nixon comfortably in Thursday's primary, according to a new poll out Monday.
Cuomo leads Nixon by a whopping 41 percentage points in the Siena survey, with 63% to her 22%.
A few hours after the poll came out, another disappointment for Nixon: Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed her running mate, City Councilman Jumaane Williams, and leading ally, state AG candidate Zephyr Teachout, but not Nixon. (Was it because of her highly unusual bagel order at Zabar's? We'll check in on it.)
The polling offered Cuomo a break from what had been a rough weekend, in which he had to distance himself -- amid a furor that led to a scolding NYT editorial (from the same board that is endorsing him!) -- from a state party mailer that said Nixon, who is raising two of her children as Jews, wouldn't stand up for the Jewish community. He also had to delay the opening of a new span of the Mario M. Cuomo Bridge (named for his father) after it emerged the span it was replacing was at risk of collapsing onto or near it. This, after the governor headlined a ribbon-cutting, alongside Hillary Clinton, on Friday.
Also to note from the Siena poll: the top 3 in the AG race shows it's tight! - Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney: 25%
- NYC Public Advocate Tish James: 24%
- Anti-corruption activist/scholar/author Zephyr Teachout: 18%
The big number: 30% still don't know how they'll vote on Thursday... | | | From Brenna: "Do you, like AG Sessions, feel like the weekend was just ripped from your hands? Mondays come for the best of/all of us. Sessions was actually talking about immigration, which is objectively more pressing than our collective case of the Mondays. Tell your friends who might have hit the snooze button this morning to subscribe to The Point." | | | | | | |
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