| | | | 4 things to remember in the final weeks of campaign 2018 | | The 2018 midterm elections are exactly 56 days away. Eight weeks from today, the nation will go and vote, rendering the verdict on the first two years of Donald Trump's presidency and their relative judgments of the two parties as well.
Below, four things I know about what will matter in the final eight weeks of this election cycle.
1. A Trump referendum: History -- since the Civil War -- suggests that midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the party in power. (There have been literally three exceptions in all that time.) And President Donald Trump is such a massive figure in our politics -- and in our culture -- that it's hard for me to imagine that he won't be on the minds of lots of voters (of both parties) this fall.
2. The House playing field favors Democrats: At the moment, CNN ranks 30 House races as "toss ups"; of that 30, 28 are currently held by Republicans. There are also 11 Republican-held seats that are rated as "leaning" toward Democrats -- and one GOP seat (New Jersey's 2nd) where Democrats are solid favorites. That's a whole lot of Republican seats in a whole lot of jeopardy, especially when you remember that Democrats need only 23 to win back the majority.
3. The Senate playing field favors Republicans: There are 26 Democratic seats up in 2018 as compared to just nine for Republicans. Of those 26 Democratic seats, 10 are in states where President Trump won in 2016. No matter how popular -- or, in this case, unpopular -- Trump is, he remains more of a boon than a burden in places like West Virginia, Missouri and North Dakota. To win the Senate majority, Democrats need to win in places like Arizona, Tennessee and Texas. All doable. None easy.
4. The Democratic base is more energized: There's a reason that point No. 1 is almost always true. Because the party out of power usually wants to get it back more than the party in power wants to retain it. It's human nature. While that's often true, it's even more true with Trump in the White House. Democrats hate Trump with the white-hot passion of 1,000 suns. Of the 91% of Democrats in the new CNN-SSRS poll who disapprove of the job Trump is doing, 85% of the them strongly disapprove.
The Point: The House is in deep jeopardy for Republicans. The Senate is -- and has been from the start -- a tougher climb. The X-factors? 1. Do Trump's poll numbers keep dropping (even in red states)? and 2. What does he say, do and tweet between now and Nov. 6?
-- Chris | | "We know this is going to be a very challenging election. On the Senate side, I'll just list you a bunch of races that are just dead even: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Florida. All of them too close to call and every one of them like a knife fight in an alley. I mean, just a brawl in every one of those places. I hope when the smoke clears, we'll still have a majority in the Senate.
-- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell at a news conference in Louisville, per CNN's Ted Barrett | | | President Donald Trump traveled to Pennsylvania with first lady Melania Trump to pay tribute to victims of Flight 93 on the anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks.
"This field is now a monument to American defiance," Trump said. "This memorial is now a message to the world: 'America will never, ever submit to tyranny.' "
CNN's Kevin Liptak points out that Trump greeted his supporters with a grin paired with double fist pumps. And that's not all, Liptak writes: "The President began the day on a combative streak, tweeting angrily about the Russia investigation from the White House as mourners were gathering in lower Manhattan, at the Pentagon and in the Pennsylvania field where Flight 93 crashed 17 years ago."
Chris also noted Trump's tweets, and his "tin ear for the moment" on the morning of 9/11. | | Top House staffers are less racially diverse than the lawmakers employing them, The New York Times' Nicholas Fandos writes
BuzzFeed's Katherine Miller details a generational divide -- and notes that the first Americans born after September 11, 2001 will be able to vote next fall
CNN's Doug Criss writes about how some scientists are saying Pluto should have never been downgraded from a planet
From The New York Times' archives: "Portraits of Grief," a look back a decade after the 9/11 terrorist attacks | | | The new Waxahatchee album may be better than the last Waxahatchee album. And that's saying something. | | Today's the day: Journalist Bob Woodward's book, "Fear: Trump in the White House," about the Trump administration, is officially available in hardcover and e-book. Yesterday, CNN's Brian Stelter and Jamie Gangel reported that the publisher, Simon & Schuster, is printing 1 million copies.
CNN's Ted Barrett reports that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, avoided questions about the book at a news conference in Louisville, telling reporters he hadn't read it and therefore has "no observations about it."
Axios reported that both former White House staff secretary Rob Porter and former White House economic adviser Gary Cohn were disputing claims in the book. Porter called the book "misleading" in a statement, while Cohn told Axios the book "does not accurately portray" his White House experience. A spokesperson for Cohn declined comment and referred CNN to Cohn's statement to Axios.
Woodward is standing by his reporting.
Chris pointed out that neither statement specifically refutes Woodward's reporting that the duo would take documents off President Trump's desk without him knowing, and Porter says only that Woodward "misunderstood" the detail. | | | As Hurricane Florence makes its way toward the Eastern Seaboard, a state of emergency has been declared in Washington, along with the Carolinas, Virginia and Maryland. The storm is currently classified as a Category 4, and more than 1 million people face mandatory evacuation orders. CNN's Kevin Liptak reports that Trump described the impending storm as "tremendously big" and "tremendously wet," and stressed that the government is prepared.
"We are sparing no expense, we are totally prepared, we are ready, we are as ready as anyone has ever been," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during a briefing with his FEMA and Homeland Security chiefs.
"Things can change but we doubt they will," Trump said, saying the storm could be the worst in "25-30 years, maybe ever." CNN's Jason Hanna, Kaylee Hartung and Susannah Cullinane report that ahead of Friday's expected landfall, tropical-storm force winds are set to reach the Carolinas on Thursday morning, and hurricane-force winds could be felt that night.
"This will be a storm that creates and causes massive damage to our country," Jeff Byard, Federal Emergency Management Agency associate administrator, said Tuesday morning, also adding that it is expected to be a "long-term recovery."
"This is not going to be a storm that we recover from in days," Byard said.
Track the storm with CNN's hurricane tracker. | | Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh's hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee concluded last week, but according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, Americans appear split on whether he should be confirmed.
One of CNN's resident polling pros, Grace Sparks, breaks down the numbers: - 38% say Kavanaugh should be confirmed
- 39% say he shouldn't be
Even after the Senate's confirmation hearings, the new numbers are similar to CNN's August poll, when 37% supported his confirmation and four in 10 did not.
"At that time, Kavanaugh had the lowest level of support for a Supreme Court nominee since Robert Bork, whose nomination was rejected by the Senate in 1987," Sparks wrote.
Some other numbers to note: - 63% of Democrats say the Senate shouldn't vote in favor of Kavanaugh
- 74% of Republicans support the Senate voting to confirm Kavanaugh
- 40% of independents say they don't want senators to confirm Kavanaugh
Read Sparks' full story here. | | | From Brenna: "I will fully admit that I do not expect GIF greatness from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. He's definitely more stoic than a Bernie Sanders or a President Trump. But I will say, I don't think I've ever seen this particular gesture. People surprise you sometimes. Surprise your friends with how awesome The Point is by telling them to subscribe!" | | | | | | |
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