| | | | | The Super Bowl of Politics | | This is a special pre-debate edition of the letter. We'll send out a post-debate edition, with some early ratings intel, around 9:30am Tuesday.
Right now "the tension at Hofstra is palpable," Dylan Byers emails from the spin room. "We've been pre-gaming this event, hyping it up, running through a thousand hypotheticals. But at 9pm ET, the only thing that matters is what happens on the stage..." | | | So here are our 9 questions heading into tonight: | | | Will Lester Holt fact-check? | | | Yes. But sparingly. That's my best sense from sources close to him. Lester Holt's debate prep has been on "lockdown," per a knowledgeable NBCer. But it's fair to say, as two sources did over the weekend, that Holt will "not be a potted plant." He'll interject when necessary — either to let the other candidate challenge a whopper or correct the record himself... | | | Will the debate set a ratings record? | | | The better Q is: how MANY records will it set? I'm sticking with my prediction from Sunday: 85 million. (That's the # I'm guessing Nielsen will issue tomorrow, a cumulative # of viewers across all the TV channels carrying the debate. Web streams will be measured separately.) Others think 90 or 100 million is possible. Here's my story all about the expectations... | | | How quickly will journalists name a "winner" and "loser?" | | | Ben Smith published his infamous "How Mitt Romney Won the First Debate" post just 40 minutes into the first Obama/Romney face-off in 2012. Will journalists make even faster judgments this time? I asked Smith if he'll be reacting in real time again tonight, and he replied, "I certainly intend to :)" | | | Will Trump be graded on a curve? | | | Media editor Alex Koppelman Gchats: If the MSNBC graphics that sparked some outrage on Twitter today are any indication: probably. Trump will be fact-checked within an inch of his life after the debate, no question, but if he makes it through without making a spectacle of himself, there'll be a lot of pundits and reporters tempted to say he did what he needed to and hand victory to him. | | | Will the audience remain silent? | | Debate commission exec director Janet Brown says audience members must remain "respectful and silent." NO audience participation is allowed. With so much on the line tonight, will someone flout the rules?
— BTW: Why have an audience at all? Because the campaigns want to invite family/supporters; the commission needs room for VIPs; and the university wants to allow students to watch... | | | Are we using the wrong analogy? | | | Brian Lowry emails: There really is a Super Bowl-like mentality surrounding this event, heavily predicated on the unpredictability that Trump brings to the process. But the analogy is probably less apt than a prize fight, since almost as soon as the initial flurry of spin is over, the focus will begin shifting to how the combatants might change tactics in the rematch... | | | Is there anything else to watch tonight? | | | No! Okay, just kidding, there's "Monday Night Football." ESPN is reminding people that they can watch MNF on a second screen, like a smartphone, via WatchESPN... | | | What will the TV critics think? | | | I'm serious about this one. TV critics -- at least the ones who watched "The Celebrity Apprentice" -- understand Trump's broadcasting talent. I'm curious to read/hear their reviews of his performance... | | | Will anyone be influenced by the fact-checks afterward? | | | More from Alex Koppelman: The general consensus among people who study these things is that debunking efforts can actually backfire, making people who believe a falsehood more sure of its accuracy. NYMag's Jesse Singal just wrote about new research that provides some hope, but he cautions: "It's almost certainly the case that staunch Clinton or Trump partisans would be less receptive to fact-checks targeting their favored candidates." | | | Reminder about the format | | Compiled by Dylan:
-- The debate will last 90 minutes, no commercial breaks.
-- The debate will be divided into six segments, 15 minutes each.
-- The debate topics are: "America's Direction" (the state of the union); "Achieving Prosperity" (the economy); and "Securing America" (national security and foreign policy).
-- Each segment will begin with a question. Each candidate will have two minutes to respond. That will be followed by 10 minutes of open debate and discussion.
-- Due to the results of a coin toss, the first question of the debate will go to Clinton. The second question will go to Trump. And so on and so forth.
-- Also due to the results of a coin toss, Clinton will stand stage left (on the audience's right) and Trump will stand stage right (on the audience's left).
-- The campaigns made a verbal agreement to cooperate with the debate rules. | | | Notice what didn't happen on the road to Hofstra: Trump didn't threaten to boycott | | | In an alternative reality, Trump would be sitting on the sidelines right now, refusing to step foot on the debate stage. After all, he boycotted one of the Republican primary debates in January. The Commission on Presidential Debates had braced itself for similar drama. But the negotiations were surprisingly smooth, according to sources on both sides. The two campaigns opted not to sign the traditional debate agreement -- not out of spite but because it was deemed unnecessary. Read our full story here... | | | What this moment means for NBC News | | | Dylan Byers emails: A successful night for Holt would be a much-needed win for NBC News, which has suffered through some of the most embarrassing storylines of the 2016 campaign. "Matt Lauer" and "The CNBC debate" have become shorthand for two of the most poorly handled major media events of the cycle. Fairly or unfairly, the missteps have overshadowed the network's otherwise strong political journalism. Read Dylan's full story here... Plus his profile of Holt from last week... | | | What's different this debate year | | | Both sides agreed to relatively lenient moderating guidelines. "The rules are much more wide open than they have been in previous years... meaning that the candidates can now can speak directly to each other, and can question each other," Jim Lehrer told me on "Reliable Sources." | | | Lehrer said on "Reliable" that fact-checking should happen AFTER the debate. Ann Compton disagreed somewhat, saying journalists "hate to leave absolute errors of fact on the table." As for the debate expectations game, Eleanor Clift said, "I don't think you can ever have a complete equality in how you score these two people." Others would beg to differ... | | Disney "is working with a financial adviser to evaluate a possible bid for Twitter," Bloomberg reported this afternoon. "After receiving interest in discussing a deal, Twitter has started a process to evaluate a potential sale." Salesforce.com is also reportedly considering a bid...
-- Peter Kafka's followup: "Why Disney won't buy Twitter..." | | | Wanda in talks to take over Dick Clark Productions | | | Via the WSJ: "China's richest man is going for glamour with his latest Hollywood blockbuster. Billionaire Wang Jianlin is in discussions to acquire control of Dick Clark Productions at a valuation of up to $1 billion through his Dalian Wanda Group Co." Wanda already owns AMC and Legendary Entertainment... | | -- A must-read by Jay Rosen: "Asymmetry between the major parties fries the circuits of the mainstream press..." (PressThink)
-- Today Glenn Beck interviewed Ted Cruz "and apologized to listeners for backing Cruz..." (CNNPolitics)
-- In the NYT: All about the challenges of making Facebook-friendly ads without sound... (NYT)
-- Speaking of ads: "For two and a half minutes" during pre-debate coverage, "CNN will air a commercial for cable-TV's Epix network that will look a lot like its regular programming." Details here... (Variety) | | | Catch up on "Reliable Sources" | | Tell us what you think... | | | What do you like about this newsletter? What do you dislike? Send your feedback to reliablesources@cnn.com. We appreciate every email. We'll be back Tuesday morning with a special post-debate newsletter... | | | Get Reliable Sources, a comprehensive summary of the most important media news, delivered to your inbox every afternoon. | | | | | |
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