| | | | The 5 BIG 2020 storylines this week, ranked |  | | 5. Who's 'electable' now? The entrance of former VP Joe Biden into the 2020 field has altered the race's dynamics in lots of ways but none more notable than this: Electability is now front and center.
Biden's entire candidacy is based on the idea that a) beating Donald Trump is all that matters and b) he is by far best positioned to do so.
(Recent CNN polling suggests former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke is actually the strongest general election candidate against Trump right now. O'Rourke led Trump by 10 while Biden held a 6-point edge in a head-to-head match up with Trump.)
New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand isn't ceding the "most electable" ground, however. "In 2018, I flipped 18 Trump counties in NY," she tweeted Sunday. "My 2012 vote share is the highest a statewide candidate has won in NY—ever. So yes, I'm 'electable.' But I'm also the right candidate to take on Trump because I have the experience, vision and record to win." (Her tweet linked to this New York Times piece on the electability question.)
While Gillibrand is engaging Biden directly on the electability questions, other prominent Democratic thinkers reject the idea outright. Paul Waldman's argument against "electability" in the Washington Post is very much worth your time.
4. A warning sign for Booker?: Money -- or a lack thereof -- is what always dooms a presidential campaign. If you can't pay for TV ads or for staff (or to keep the lights on in your campaign HQ) then you can't keep trudging on. No candidate is in that dire a place just yet -- staffs remain relatively small and expenses manageable.
But, we are getting some evidence that some candidates are struggling to build the sort of broad-based grassroots fundraising operation that can sustain their bids for the long haul. One such candidate is New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, who, finally on Friday, crested the 65,000 donor plateau -- ensuring a spot in the first Democratic debates next month in Florida.
That Booker was beat to 65,000 contributors by lesser-known candidates like Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and businessman Andrew Yang should concern supporters of the New Jersey senator. Yes, Booker raised more than $5 million over the first 3 months of 2019. But if he can't broaden his small-dollar fundraising outward -- and soon -- it could spell trouble for his hopes.
3. The struggle for oxygen: CNN's Maeve Reston published a very smart piece on Sunday about the struggles many of the 2nd tier Democrats are experiencing as they try to find ways to draw attention to their candidacies in a field currently being dominated by Biden and, to a lesser extent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Wrote Maeve:
"With the splashy announcements and the feverish race for first quarter fundraising dollars behind them, they are looking to recapture a spark in this long marathon to the primaries when the Democratic National Committee debates -- the best chance for a jolt of energy -- are still more than a month away. Until then, the candidates have no choice but to keep their heads down and continue the painstaking work of winning over voters who -- even after all the emails, tweets and town halls -- still might not even know they exist."
This is the rough reality for a number of candidates seen as a real contenders -- from O'Rourke to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren to California Sen. Kamala Harris. Biden's entrance into the race last month -- and the successful early days of his campaign -- have made it harder and harder to find positive news coverage and the resultant buzz and energy that comes from it.
2. Amy Klobuchar gets her FNC close-up: On the same day Trump heads to Florida to rally support for 2020, his pet network will host to its second town hall for a Democrat hoping to oust him next November: Minnesota Amy Klobuchar.
Unlike Sanders, who was the featured candidate in the first Fox News Channel 2020 town hall last month, a major part of Klobuchar's pitch is that she is a Democrat who can reach across the aisle and win over Republican-leaning voters who don't want to vote for Trump. She gets a chance to make that case in front of a massive conservative audience Wednesday night -- although it remains to be seen if Klobuchar can match the rave reviews Sanders won for his performance.
FNC isn't stopping after Klobuchar. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is set to star in a Fox town hall on May 19 and Gillibrand will get her chance on June 2.
1. The Trump 2020 campaign rolls into Florida: If Trump's travel schedule in the final days of the 2018 campaign are any indication, he cares deeply about keeping Florida in the red column come 2020. He was all over the state in the final month of the midterms -- and it worked. Rick Scott won the Senate race and Ron DeSantis got elected governor.
Trump comes back to the Sunshine State on Wednesday for a rally in Panama City. Trump will come to Florida riding high -- on the heels of a blockbuster jobs report last week and with the cloud of the release of the redacted version of the Mueller report now gone.
And yet, in spite of all that (generally) good news, Trump remains in the low 40s in job approval -- a bad place to be for an incumbent president. Can Trump stay disciplined on an economic message, which represents his best chance of winning a second term? Wednesday will be our first glimpse of an answer. | | | | | | |
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