O'Reilly's fate; Fox's leverage; board meeting on Thursday; Netflix and spin; Tapper in GQ; Seacrest renews red carpet deal

By Brian Stelter and the CNNMoney Media team. View this email in your browser!
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THE O'REILLY SCANDAL
Exit talk

On Tuesday afternoon a well-placed source told me that representatives for Fox News and Bill O'Reilly have begun talking about an exit.

When I called around, sources in O'Reilly's camp denied the existence of talks. But even one of those O'Reilly allies acknowledged what folks inside Fox are saying -- that he will probably not be back on the "Factor." Here's my story.

On Tuesday night the WSJ's Joe Flint went further, saying "Fox News is preparing to cut ties with its biggest star." Flint is a very well-sourced reporter, but the fact that the WSJ is a Murdoch-owned outlet was lost on no one. 

No one knows exactly what's going to happen between now and Monday, when O'Reilly is expected back at work. But here's what we do know...

Murdochs holding board meeting on Thursday

 -- Another woman called Fox's hotline and accused O'Reilly of harassment on Tuesday.
 -- 21st Century Fox will hold a board meeting on Thursday.
 -- An announcement about O'Reilly's fate is likely by the end of the week.

 -- Fox News is no longer confirming that O'Reilly is due to return from vacation on Monday.
 -- The Murdochs are pointedly not commenting on any of this.

Drudge seems to think it's over...

At 4:21pm ET the ever-mysterious @Drudge tweeted: "O'Reilly has had tremendous run. Very few in the business get to decide when and how things end. Media is most brutal of all industries..."

Gabriel Sherman's latest

Gabriel Sherman started this new wave of stories by reporting at 2:35pm that "the Murdochs are leaning toward announcing that O'Reilly will not return to the air." Sherman cited "three sources with knowledge of the discussions" and said "no final decision has been made."

The key new detail: Lachlan has "leaned more in his brother James's direction" in recent days...

Fox's "leverage"

O'Reilly recently signed a new contract... but... remember how the NYT reported that the new deal was structured to give Fox "more leverage" regarding O'Reilly's behavior? The word "leverage" popped up in other news stories too. And it could be a major factor in what's about to happen. It sounds like Fox has an escape hatch...

 >> Fresh reporting from Paul Farhi in Wednesday's WashPost: "O'Reilly's contract — signed in March — has an 'opt out' clause that would require Fox to pay him a fixed amount if invoked, making extensive negotiations unlikely and unnecessary..."

Page One of Wednesday's NYT

The NYT's lead: O'Reilly's position "grew increasingly tenuous on Tuesday." The story will be on Page One of Wednesday's paper...

O'Reilly still in Italy

O'Reilly remains on vacation somewhere in Italy while his team of agents and lawyers in NYC work on his behalf...

Inside Fox... 

In and around Fox, conversations have already turned to possible O'Reilly successors. Here's how NPR's David Folkenflik described it in a tweet: "Fox News is game-planning for life and possible prime-time lineup without Bill O'Reilly..."

So: Dana Perino? Eric Bolling? Jesse Watters? An 8pm edition of "The Five?" Something else?

Dana Perino filling in 

Perino filled in once last week, again on Monday night and a third time on Tuesday night. Her #'s, relative to other Fox shows, were stronger on Monday than they were last week... perhaps a good sign for her...

 -- Kurt Bardella tweets: "Would #FoxNews audience accept a female replacement for #BillOReilly - PR wise - it might be a good idea to have a woman in their lineup"

Would O'Reilly jump to a rival network?

CNN? MSNBC? No. But on Tuesday I spoke with one upstart conservative media CEO who said he'd be interested in talking to O'Reilly's reps...

 -- Jack Shafer tweets: "Sinclair could build a whole new network around Bill O'Reilly..."

Tuesday's OTHER O'Reilly developments

BEFORE Sherman's story and the domino effect of other stories...

There was a small protest outside Fox News HQ on Tuesday... organized by the liberal group Ultraviolet... dozens of people chanted and held signs...

Another accuser called the Fox hotline

Attorney and activist Lisa Bloom, who's been representing Wendy Walsh and encouraging other women to come forward, said she was now representing a second O'Reilly accuser -- "an African-American former clerical worker at Fox News who, Bloom said, called a Fox News HR hotline to make an anonymous report accusing O'Reilly of sexual and racial harassment." Dylan Byers and Tom Kludt have details here...

O'Reilly lawyer says "smear campaign" is being orchestrated by "far-left"

Via Dylan and Tom's story: One of O'Reilly's attorneys, Marc E. Kasowitz, issued two statements in response to Bloom and the anonymous new accuser.

The second, and much stronger, statement, said O'Reilly was being "subjected to a brutal campaign of character assassination that is unprecedented in post-McCarthyist America." 

Kasowitz said his law firm had "uncovered evidence that the smear campaign is being orchestrated by far-left organizations bent on destroying O'Reilly for political and financial reasons." He promised to release "irrefutable evidence" to bolster that claim.

Lisa Bloom says...

Bloom is definitely a leftie, but she rebuffed Kasowitz's assertion on "AC360," telling Anderson Cooper that she's trying to help these women and doing the work for free. She also indicated that a third woman may be calling the Fox hotline: "I spent yesterday and today with a new accuser... she was very stressed... this is very hard on women..." 

Bill Carter's view

On "AC360," Bill Carter said Fox is boxed in: "Even if they were to bring O'Reilly back, it's not going to let up, the ad boycott is not going to let up... " On the other hand, "there will be a backlash of sorts" by O'Reilly's fans: "It looks like Fox is giving into what they think is a feminist plot or a liberal plot to get rid of their favorite broadcaster."

 -- Dylan Byers and I will be on CNN's "New Day" with the latest info... Wednesday 7:45am ET...

Consider...

If O'Reilly resigns, or if Fox takes him off the air, he'll be the third major player to leave the network in the span of nine months. Roger Ailes' resignation last July was the result of sexual harassment charges by women at the network, including Megyn Kelly, who herself left Fox in January...

What's missing

Brian Lowry tweets: "A key oversight in my initial reaction that O'Reilly would weather this: Unlike past scandals, Roger Ailes not there to circle the wagons."

How will the president react to all of this?

This is what President Trump said 13 days ago: "He is a good person... I think he shouldn't have settled... I don't think Bill did anything wrong."

For the record, part one

 -- The NYT's new business editor is Ellen Pollock... the section's first female editor... she was previously the EIC of Bloomberg Businessweek...

 -- Michael Brendan Dougherty is jumping from The Week to National Review...

 -- Happy 20th anniversary to the Newseum!

Here are all the other stories that WERE contenders to lead tonight's letter...

The so-called "Facebook killer" killed himself... Mark Zuckerberg briefly addressed the murder video, then talked about augmented reality at F8... and Trump's show of force was nowhere near North Korea...

GQ profiles Jake Tapper

Taffy Brodesser-Akner is the author of this profile... so you know it's going to be a must-read. GQ just published it. She says "it'd be easy to think that the Jake Tapper WTF Face — that unique look through which he transmits his seeming disbelief and outrage — is just a singular expression, that it's just one face. In fact, the Jake Tapper WTF Face contains multitudes." Here's the rest...

What a difference an "r" makes 

Have you heard about the Bianna/Brianna anecdote in Jon Allen and Amie Parnes' new book "Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign?" Brianna Keilar says the book didn't get it quite right. Keilar and Bianna Golodryga appeared on Brooke Baldwin's show on Tuesday to clear it all up... and Keilar wrote about it here...

Other books out today 

Scott Conroy's "Vote First or Die" about the NH primary... Jon Taplin's "Move Fast and Break Things" about Facebook, Google and Amazon... Ed Henry's "42 Faith" about Jackie Robinson...

A morning TV ratings race anniversary

"Five years ago this week, 'Good Morning America' broke the 'Today' show's 16-year streak as the most-watched network morning show," TVNewser's Chris Ariens writes. "Five years later, 'GMA' is still No. 1, with a 5% lead on 'Today' last week, while 'Today' remains No. 1 in the demo, consistently winning in younger viewers since late 2015."

But... and this is a big but... "both shows continue to lose viewers." Quoting Ariens: "In the last 5 years, 'GMA' is down 18% in viewers and down 36% in the 25-54 demo. 'Today' is down 21% in viewers and down 32% in the demo." One of the beneficiaries? "CBS This Morning," up "42% in viewers and up 2% in the demo in the last 5 years..." 

Trump and the media
Breitbart and Trump relationship: it's complicated

"As President Trump has drifted away from Steve Bannon, the alarm bells have gotten louder at Breitbart News, the site Bannon used to run," Tom Kludt writes. Here's what he means... read Tom's full story here...

Is "Fauda" the next "Homeland?"

CNN's Samuel Burke emails: Netflix is on a binge of its own: buying up these local-language series. This one, "Fauda," has proven to beat the company's expectations. And it only cost Netflix a fraction of what it spends to make shows... Read/watch more here...

Netflix and spin

Brian Lowry emails: Netflix continues to try to have it both ways when it comes to ratings. While famously tight-lipped when it comes to offering user information to the media, it will occasionally flag a success in vague terms, like saying that Dave Chappelle's specials were its "most viewed" ever. But compared to what?

Netflix is within its rights in being coy about usage, insisting that's not fundamental to its business model, even if some guidance would help media outlets determine how much coverage to devote to certain programs. (HBO doesn't rely on individual ratings either, but still provides them when asked.) The bottom line is that barring any evidence, nobody should play along with the service's highlight claims that, as the A.V. Club noted, have to be taken on "pure faith..."

The entertainment desk
Lowry reviews "Fargo"

Brian Lowry emails: "Fargo's" second season was a dazzling follow-up to the first, avoiding the "True Detective" jinx. While the third reloads with a big-name cast, it feels more like a pleasant retread, without the freshness of the last edition...

Seacrest re-ups his red carpet deal 

"Ryan Seacrest will remain on E!'s red carpet for at least a few more years," THR's Lacey Rose reports. "The long-tenured host has extended his deal to host and executive produce the network's one-off signature events," the Oscars, the Grammys and the Golden Globes...

Comedy Central wants to appeal to "more than just a young, white male audience"

In upfront talks, Comedy Central is pitching "three new series and a broader set of late-night options." The channel's president Kent Alterman tells Variety's Brian Steinberg that "we are opening our aperture, so we are appealing to more than just a young, white male audience..."

Netflix trolls Hulu

Megan Thomas emails: Hulu tweeted an ad touting its shows that are unavailable on Netflix. Netflix responded with a snarky retweet captioned "Welcome to your tape" -- a reference to the streaming giant's "13 Reasons Why," which tells the fictional story of a teen who explains her suicide on a series of audio tapes. EW breaks down the exchange here...

For the record, part two

 -- Lisa France emails: While fans across the globe are prepping to mourn Prince on the one year anniversary of his death this week, his ex-wife Mayte Garcia told me she's unsure as to how she wants to spend that day. She talked to me about her new book on their relationship, the Prince the world didn't know, and why she knows he didn't fear death...

 -- Megan Thomas emails: Is the Academy Museum heading for catastrophe? With a ballooning budget, stalling and setbacks, the Academy Museum is beginning to look like a box office bomb. Variety's Gene Maddaus and Brent Lang wrote this must-have-bugged-the-building piece on the Academy's scramble to avoid disaster...

Catch up on Sunday's "Reliable Sources"

Watch the video clips on CNN.com... listen to the podcast... or read the transcript here...

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