| | | | 4 keys to watch in OH-12 tonight 🤓 | | It may be the doldrums of August, but there's a special election tonight in Ohio that could have major ramifications in the battle for the House majority this fall.
The race is in Ohio's 12th District, where state Sen. Troy Balderson, a Republican, is taking on Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor. On its face, the district should favor Republicans; Donald Trump and Mitt Romney won it in 2016 and 2012, and Republicans have held it for more than three decades.
But all the data suggests this race is really close -- and according to data over the past month, Balderson is holding steady while O'Connor is trending upward.
One House race can't tell us everything the entire country is thinking -- obviously. (Charlie Cook makes that point here.) But it will tell us something about how both parties' messages are working and how base enthusiasm is playing out on both sides.
Below, four things to watch in tonight's voting:
1. Nancy Pelosi: The House minority leader has been at the center of Republican attacks in the final days of the race as outside conservative groups seek to link O'Connor with the unpopular California Democrat. O'Connor has fumbled somewhat on the question, struggling to get distance from the minority leader. The GOP's Pelosi strategy worked like a charm in 2014 and 2010. But has its moment passed?
2. The Trump effect: President Trump visited the district on Saturday in an attempt to rally support for Balderson. Trump did the same in the Pennsylvania special election earlier this year but couldn't save Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone. But Trump has shown an ability to deliver Republican votes in GOP primaries. Can he do the same for Balderson in a general, special election format?
3. Suburbs: This is a suburban district, taking in the affluent suburbs of Columbus. (The median income districtwide is more than $66,000.) In 2016, Trump won suburban areas -- which made up 49% of the overall vote -- by 4 points. That's in keeping with the suburbs as the central battleground between the two parties. An O'Connor win tonight would suggest the suburbs might be swinging to Democrats.
4. Tax cuts cut who? In the wake of the passage of the Trump tax plan last year, congressional Republicans insisted they would be running hard in the midterms on putting more money in people's pockets. But it's Democrats who have seized on the tax issue in this race -- arguing that Balderson's support for the Trump tax cut would contribute to hollowing out Social Security and Medicare. If it works, expect to hear a lot more about the tax cut issue -- from Democrats! -- in November.
The Point: This race isn't the end for the Republican majority if Balderson loses. But it's a step in the wrong direction.
--Chris
Read more in CNN's full guide on what to watch in Ohio, and tonight's four primaries in in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state. | | "I can look myself in the mirror at the end of the day and say I avoided that tragedy, I avoided that tragedy, I avoided that tragedy. I advanced this goal, I advanced this goal, I advanced this goal."
-House Speaker Paul Ryan in an interview with The New York Times, suggesting that a success of his tenure as House speaker has been to avoid unnamed "tragedies" during the Trump administration. | | | STEPHEN MILLER'S LATEST IMMIGRATION POLICY PUSH | | White House adviser Stephen Miller is tackling immigration policy, yet again. But this time, he is "pushing to expedite a policy that could penalize legal immigrants whose families receive public benefits and make it more difficult to get citizenship," CNN's Tal Kopan reported Tuesday, citing three sources familiar with the matter.
From Tal's story: "The White House has been reviewing the proposal since March at the Office of Management and Budget, which is the last stop for regulations before they are final. But concerns over potential lawsuits have delayed the final rule, and the draft has undergone numerous revisions, multiple sources say.
"The crux of the proposal would penalize legal immigrants if they or their family members have used government benefits -- defined widely in previous drafts of the policy." Read more here. | | | Remember when Weezer covered TOTO's "Africa" and it was amazing? Well now TOTO is covering Weezer's "Hash Pipe." They performed it on the first night of their 40th Anniversary Tour in Vancouver. You can watch the YouTube video here. | | | Today's topic: Why Rick Gates' testimony may be worrisome for Donald Trump. | | Former Vice President Joe Biden announced a new initiative Tuesday aimed at emphasizing the importance of family and community acceptance to LGBTQ youth, CNN's Jennifer Hansler reported. From Jennifer's story: "The 'As You Are' campaign was launched under the former vice president's eponymous foundation, which lists LGBTQ equality as one of its pillars. The social media campaign hopes to collect testimonies from LGBTQ youth, family members, educators and others. Those stories will be used as educational tools 'with the hope that they will serve to inspire, to create communities, to heal families, and to change the broader culture to ensure a bright future for all LGBTQ young people,' a news release said."
This is the latest news from Biden, who has been a speculated #2020 Democratic presidential nominee. CNN's Caroline Kenny writes: - Also on Tuesday, Biden recorded a robocall for Danny O'Connor, the Democrat running in today's special election in Ohio's 12th Congressional District. The other potential 2020 contender making a robocall for O'Connor? O'Connor's fellow Ohioan Sen. Sherrod Brown.
- Last week, Biden and former President Barack Obama made a very publicized lunch outing to Dog Tag Bakery in Washington. It was one of only a few public appearances made by the duo together since they left the White House, and left many wondering if this was a subtle start to a Biden 2020 campaign.
- The former VP has been slowly but surely wading into South Carolina politics. Last week, he recorded a video endorsement for his friend, former South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian, who is running for state Senate in the capital city of Columbia. This isn't the first South Carolina race Biden has gotten involved in this year. He's also been a vocal supporter of Democratic gubernatorial candidate James Smith, who will face off against incumbent Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, a Trump friend, in November. As I wrote about last year, South Carolina would be a home base for a Biden 2020 campaign because of the large amount of support he has there among party leaders and operatives.
| | WEST HOLLYWOOD WANTS LA TO REMOVE TRUMP'S STAR | | The city of West Hollywood wants President Donald Trump's Hollywood Walk of Fame star to go. The thing is, West Hollywood has no jurisdiction over the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
That's why the West Hollywood City Council on Monday night passed a resolution asking the Hollywood Chamber of Commerce to remove Trump's star.
WeHo Mayor Mayor John Duran told CNN: "The West Hollywood City Council did not pass the resolution because Donald Trump is a conservative or a Republican. Earning a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame is an honor. When one belittles and attacks minorities, immigrants, Muslims, people with disabilities or women -- the honor no longer exists."
But the chances of a star actually being removed are probably low. Hollywood Chamber of Commerce President Leron Gubler has previously said that once a star has been added it is considered "a part of the historic fabric of the Hollywood Walk of Fame." No stars have ever been removed. | | While President Donald Trump is on working vacation in New Jersey this week, the White House is getting a little reno.
CNN's Kevin Liptak reports: "Officials said on Tuesday that marble would be repaired and re-grouted, ceilings would be repainted and paving stones leveled while Trump remains ensconced in his private golf club.
"The renovations include new bathrooms in the West Wing where the facilities haven't been updated in four decades. The wood-paneled elevator is also being updated, along with plumbing in the Navy Mess, the White House's cafeteria." Read more here. | | | From Brenna: "SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh swore in his former law clerk to her new job as a circuit court judge. He also got to live the dream and start a slow clap -- OK, a normally paced clap -- with her parents. Your friends will applaud you when you tell them to subscribe to The Point." | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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