| | | | 🚨 WARNING: The GOP has a 2018 passion problem🚨 | | Buried in a new national poll from Quinnipiac University is this question: "Compared to past elections for the US House of Representatives, how motivated would you say you are to vote in this year's election; are you more motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual?"
The responses are, at first glance, nothing terribly interesting: 49% say they are more motivated while 46% say they are as motivated as usual. Just 6% of people say they are less motivated to vote in this election as compared to past contests.
But one look at the breakdowns by party reveals something very interesting -- and important:
58% of Democrats say are more motivated than usual to vote in this election while 38% say they are as motivated as usual.
41% of Republicans say they are more motivated than usual while 58% say they are about as motivated as always.
That 17 percentage point delta is critical to understanding the fate of both parties -- at least right now -- heading into the 2018 election. Democrats are fired up beyond belief to vote, motivated almost exclusively by their white-hot hatred of President Donald Trump and his White House. Republicans, who currently control the House, Senate and White House, are generally happy with the current state of affairs.
That passion gap is nothing new -- although it is more pronounced with Trump than with most past presidents. It's why, with three exceptions -- 1934, 1998 and 2002 -- the president's party has lost House seats in the first midterm election.
Even Trump has acknowledged the gap -- and its potential pitfalls for Republicans. "What happens is you fight so hard to win the presidency, and you fight, fight, fight," Trump said in February. "By the time you start campaigning, it's a year. And now you got to go and fight again. But you just won. So nobody has that same drive that they had."
That's right. And despite his warning, that appears to be exactly what's happening in 2018.
The Point: Trump has broken historical norms repeatedly during his time in office. But the history of presidents losing House seats during their first midterm election may be a trend not even Trump can buck.
-- Chris | | "We see progress and momentum in the process and we've had good conversations as recently as yesterday and we're going to continue those conversations and push forward."
-- White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders, when asked specifically whether President Trump still trusts North Korean leader Kim Jong Un | | | WHITE HOUSE SCOTUS CONFIRMATION TEAM, ASSEMBLED! | | Less than a week after Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement -- yes it's been less than a week -- the White House said it is building a Supreme Court confirmation team. What does that mean exactly?
CNN's Jeremy Diamond reports: "The White House announced key members of the team that will work to ensure President Donald Trump's next nominee to the Supreme Court is confirmed. White House counsel Don McGahn, who has been eyeing the White House exits amid tensions with Trump in recent months, will oversee the 'selection and overall confirmation process' for the President's second Supreme Court nominee, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said Monday, signaling he will remain White House counsel for at least several more months.
"Sanders also announced that her deputy, Raj Shah, will take leave from his role to 'oversee communications, strategy and messaging coordination with Capitol Hill allies' surrounding the Supreme Court nomination. The move will put one of the administration's most important jobs in Shah's hands. But his step away from the day-to-day operations of the White House press shop could also signal the beginning of his exit from the White House, which Shah has been mulling in recent weeks."
Read more here. Also, check out CNN's story on the potential Supreme Court nominees to replace Justice Kennedy. | | | Listen to Lera Lynn's "Plays Well With Others," a duet album from the artist who did the "True Detective" season two trailer song. | | | Today's topic: Michael Cohen's loyalty comment. | | | Happy almost Fourth of July: A new poll suggests American patriotism is down. CNN's Grace Sparks writes: "In Gallup's 2018 poll, released Monday, a declining number say they are proud to be an American, with less than three-quarters saying they are, down six points since 2016. The driving force behind this lack of pride is a dip among Democrats, with their number dropping from 45% in 2016 to 32% now who said they are 'extremely proud.' Republicans moved up six points in the past two years, and independents inched down by three points. Gallup has been tracking patriotism for a while, starting in 2001 when 87% said they were proud to be an American." Read more here. | | DEMS' MOVEMENT TO ABOLISH ICE | | In an article published Monday, CNN's Greg Krieg points out that "calls to eliminate the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, for years relegated to the far-left corners of progressive activism, have been thrust this week into the mainstream of Democratic politics. Cracks in the dam became visible 10 days ago, when a group of demonstrators confronted Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen at a Mexican restaurant in Washington. They called for an end to the Trump administration policy that resulted in separating migrant families at the border and, as the viral protest heated up, began to chant: 'Abolish ICE!'
"Fueling its sudden ascent have been a series of recent shocks to the system. On Tuesday, US House candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez delivered a stunning Democratic primary upset in New York after campaigning on abolishing the agency, which was formed in 2003 as part of a post-9/11 federal overhaul that created the Department of Homeland Security."
Now the list of Democrats who want to abolish ICE continues to grow. Lawmakers who have taken this stance include Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Pramila Jayapal of Washington, Mark Pocan of Wisconsin and others. CNN's Daniella Diaz put together a full list of Dems here.
Lawmakers aren't the only ones frustrated by the Trump administration's immigration policy. Crowds took to the streets of US cities Saturday to declare "Families Belong Together." More than one thousand female activists also marched through Washington, DC, Thursday and flooded a Capitol Hill Senate building to protest the Trump administration's "zero-tolerance" policy. Some held "Abolish ICE" signs. | | COHEN SAYS FAMILY & COUNTRY > TRUMP | | Turns out Michael Cohen is not ride or die for President Donald Trump. CNN's Maegan Vazquez reported Monday:
"President Trump's longtime personal attorney, Michael Cohen, is putting his loyalty to 'family and country' before his old boss. Cohen has famously said he would take a bullet for Trump and he has fashioned himself as Trump's 'fixer, willing to help handle situations quietly. But the interview raises new questions about Cohen's allegiance to Trump amid his legal troubles and subsequent isolation from the President's inner circle. A source close to Trump and Cohen told CNN that they believe Cohen is making the case to justify why he will turn against the President."
Cohen told ABC News' George Stephanopoulos in an interview: "My wife, my daughter and my son have my first loyalty and always will. I put family and country first." Read more in CNN's story here. | | | From Brenna: "Mark Rutte, PM of the Netherlands, visited the White House today. He and President Trump made sure they were all put together for their brief photo op together in front of the West Wing. Get yourself together by telling friends to subscribe to The Point." | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba.
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