| | | | Donald Trump isn't on the 2018 ballot. Except, he sort of is. | | There's a theory kicking around Republican campaign circles that goes something like this: - Voters are very happy about the state of the economy and that will accrue to the party's benefit at the ballot box in November.
- Voters, or at least a majority of them, disapprove of Donald Trump. But they don't associate Trump very closely with the Republican Party, thinking of him as sort of an island unto himself.
It's that theory -- coupled with improvements on the congressional generic ballot -- that has led to a surge of optimism among Republicans about their chances of retaining their House and Senate majorities this fall.
But a new national poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal will likely dump a bucket of cold water on that GOP excitement. There are two interconnected findings in the survey that suggest the Republican vision of what voters think about Trump and the GOP may be somewhat misguided.
The first is the aforementioned generic ballot; Democrats carry a 50%-to-40% edge over Republicans in the new NBC/WSJ poll. That's up from the 7-point lead Democrats held in the same poll in April.
But what's more troubling for Republicans is when the people who said they prefer a Democratic Congress are asked why. A majority -- 54% -- say it is more because they "oppose the policies of Donald Trump and Republican candidates" while 41% say it's because they support the policies of the Democratic Party and its candidates.
What that means in practical terms is that voters see the 2018 election as a referendum on Trump -- and the candidates in his party. Historically speaking, this isn't terribly surprising. After all, since World War I, there have been only three midterm elections in which the president's party didn't lose House seats: 1934, 1998 and 2002. (In each case the election fell during or shortly after a cataclysmic cultural event.)
The Point: Donald Trump has made a lot of political history irrelevant with his 2016 campaign and his 16 months in the White House. But if the NBC-WSJ poll is right, he won't be able to outrace the history of midterm elections for presidents. And that's bad news for his party's majority in the House -- and maybe in the Senate, too.
-- Chris | | "I think I'm very well prepared. I don't think I have to prepare very much. It's about attitude."
-President Donald Trump, on preparing for summit with North Korea | | | - CNN's Ted Barrett reported Thursday: "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wants his deputy, Sen. John Cornyn, to stay in the Republican leadership ranks once term limits force the Texan to give up the number two job at the end of the year. Cornyn said Thursday he will stay and use that position to launch an eventual run for GOP leader, once McConnell leaves the post." Read more here.
- Meanwhile, House Speaker Paul Ryan on Thursday said there was "no evidence of collusion" between Donald Trump's campaign and Russia. From CNN's Jeremy Herb and Veronica Stracqualursi: "Ryan's comments align him with the House Intelligence Committee Republican report on the Russia investigation, in which the GOP lawmakers said they uncovered no evidence of collusion between Trump's team and Russia, just some bad judgment. But Ryan on Wednesday broke with the President and his conservative allies who have claimed the FBI was spying on his campaign, when he said he agreed with South Carolina GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy's assessment that the FBI's use of the confidential source was proper." Read more here.
- Last but not least: CNN's Tal Kopan and Lauren Fox reported that "House Republicans were on the verge of an immigration breakthrough Thursday, moderate lawmakers and sources said Thursday -- but only after the details are finalized and put on paper can the parties actually see if they agree. For now, that progress seemed to buy GOP leaders more time before an immigration civil war erupts -- at least until next week." Read more here.
| | | Prince Rogers Nelson would have been 60 years old today. Here is his absolutely epic guitar solo on "While My Guitar Gently Weeps" at the 2004 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction ceremony. | | | Today's topic: Trump's attitude comment (which was also our quote of the day). | | CNN's Jennifer Hansler reported: "An attempt at Twitter diplomacy went awry on Thursday when the Japanese Prime Minister's account accidentally quoted a tweet from the President of the United States bashing a sitting senator. In the now-deleted tweet, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wrote, 'I too look forward to having fruitful talks with my great friend President @realdDonaldTrump as always.' But rather than quoting Trump's tweet about their discussions on North Korea and trade, Abe mistakenly included one attacking Republican Sen. Jeff Flake." Flake's response? He tweeted CNN's story, and wrote: "Et tu, Abe?"
Abe was in Washington on Thursday speaking to Trump ahead of the historic summit next week in Singapore. Trump praised the Japanese Prime Minister for being "extremely helpful" in negotiations with North Korea. Read more in CNN's coverage here. | | | A majority of Americans, by a 58% to 35% margin, believe NFL players who kneel during the National Anthem in protest are "not unpatriotic," according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday. The poll, conducted from May 31 to June 5, comes after President Donald Trump announced that he was canceling a planned White House visit by the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, initially citing anthem protests as the reason for the cancellation. Read more about the poll results in CNN's story here. | | CNN's Caroline Kenny reports: "The Environmental Protection Agency is taking issue with the stars of a hit HGTV show after noticing issues with lead paint in some episodes. Magnolia Homes, the home-improvement company owned by Chip and Joanna Gaines of HGTV's 'Fixer Upper,' will pay a $40,000 fine as part of settlement with the EPA.
"The fine is due to Magnolia Homes' mishandling of lead paint, according to the EPA. As shown on episodes of 'Fixer Upper,' the Gaines' allegedly violated the Toxic Substances Control Act Lead Renovation, Repair and Painting Rule, which is related to home renovations conducted without adequate lead paint protections."
Read more here. | | WH'S NEW AD CAMPAIGN TO COMBAT OPIOID ADDICTION | | | The White House has released new advertisements aimed at curbing opioid addiction,CNN's Maegan Vazquez reported Thursday. It's a multimillion-dollar public awareness ad campaign, and the first four ads are all based on true stories illustrating the extreme lengths young adults have gone to get hold of Oxycodone and Vicodin. Read more in CNN's story here. | | | From Brenna: "Long- and medium-time readers know I love when people point at each other. It's so #onbrand. Japanese PM Abe, one of Trump's favorite world leaders, visited the White House today." Don't forget to point people toward The Point newsletter by telling them to subscribe. | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | | | | |
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