| | | | Be skeptical of Steve Bannon's Senate takeover | | To hear him tell it, Steve Bannon is going to beat eight of the nine Republican senators running for re-election in 2018. (Only Ted Cruz will be spared!)
Bannon will achieve this remarkable feat by recruiting populist, nationalist candidates who are committed to enacting President Donald Trump's agenda and toppling the political establishment symbolized by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Color me skeptical.
First of all, finding credible, well-known challengers in each of these eight states is far more difficult than Bannon likely realizes.
Bannon's success in Alabama with Roy Moore is somewhat misleading here. Moore was a well-known figure in the state who had been elected the chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court twice. This was no newbie to Alabama Republican politics.
There's not a Roy Moore waiting in every state. Nor are the eight GOP incumbents Bannon is targeting in the same political peril as appointed Sen. Luther Strange, who could never escape from the fact the disgraced governor had chosen him for the seat.
Second, beating incumbents is really, really hard. Since 1946, there has never been a two-year election cycle in which any more than six incumbents -- of both parties! -- lost primaries, according to Vital Statistics on Congress.
Outside of 2010 (three incumbents lost) and 1980 (four), the vast majority of elections see zero Senate incumbents lose primaries. It's just very, very rare.
Third, it's not entirely clear what the Bannon message against these incumbents will be. It will be very, very difficult to cast most of these eight incumbents as insufficiently conservative, as this terrific chart by CNN's Sam Petulla makes clear.
As you can see, the vast majority of Bannon targets are quite conservative. Which means that running an ideological primary, which is how most challengers beat incumbents, won't work.
Will just arguing that you will support Trump more often than the incumbent who supports him 75% of the time be enough?
Maybe. But until Bannon shows a capacity to recruit, fund and build a successful message in one of these eight states, we shouldn't assume he can and will.
-- Chris | | DEMOCRATS STILL DON'T LIKE TRUMP | | CNN's Ryan Struyk writes:
Democrats are really, really not fans of Donald Trump. An eye-popping 88% of Democratic voters say they not only disapprove of Trump's job performance -- but also disapprove strongly -- in today's new Quinnipiac poll. Of course, strong feelings about Trump are nothing new: Only one in six voters combined said they approve and disapprove "somewhat" of what he's done so far. Trump's approval overall was 38%, within a few points of where it's been for his entire presidency in this poll. | | CNN's Laura Jarrett continues to cover Sen. Bob Menendez's trial from New Jersey. Here's her latest reporter's notebook:
The prosecution rested in the federal corruption case against Sen. Menendez today after 18 days of testimony from 35 witnesses.
Prosecutors set expectations pretty high on the first day -- weaving together a remarkable tale during opening statements of a senator bribed by a wealthy doctor to help with various business disputes.
They showed the jury stacks of evidence to prove the gifts Menendez received, but when it came to showing what the senator did in return, the testimony was more of a mixed bag. And stripped to its barest bones, the legal challenge for prosecutors has always been showing that Menendez and the doctor had a corrupt agreement, when the two instead maintain they were longtime friends.
The defense team now gets a shot at making its best case.
Read Laura's full story here. | | | Eminem slammed President Trump in a freestyle rap at the BET Hip Hop Awards on Tuesday night and it's all everyone was talking about on Wednesday morning. Check out video of the freestyle here, read CNN's Deena Zaru's roundup of the 11 fiercest lines from the rap and Chris' take on it. | | | Last week, President Donald Trump at one point threw paper towels into a crowd while visiting survivors and surveying the damage in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. On Wednesday, Buzzfeed's Nidhi Prakash reported that residents of that same city -- Guaynabo -- still don't have electricity and the majority still don't have drinking water. Puerto Rico's hurricane death toll has risen to 45, CNN reported. More than 110 people remain unaccounted for, Karixia Ortiz, a spokeswoman for Puerto Rico's Department of Public Safety, told CNN. | | HOPE IS HERE (VIRTUALLY, AT LEAST) | | | CNN's Chris Moody wrote a great feature Wednesday about "Hope, a Siri-like politically minded bot built to hear out concerns about President Donald Trump and offer advice for what to do about it. Through a series of interactive text messages, Hope aims to act as a 'personal political adviser' that users can discuss the latest news and explore options for action." One step closer to our world becoming "Her" (the movie) am I right? JK! | | Trump met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday (Read CNN's story on that here).
But speaking of Trudeau ...
The Canadian leader penned an essay -- in honor of International #DayoftheGirl -- for MarieClaire.com titled "Why I'm Raising My Kids to be Feminists." He writes: "I worry -- because as a father, son, husband, and citizen, I witness the unequal obstacles women and girls face every day. It's 2017, yet in Canada and around the world, women and girls still face violence, discrimination, stereotypes that limit them, and unequal opportunities that keep them from achieving their dreams. It is maddening to me that my brilliant, compassionate daughter will grow up in a world where, despite everything she is as a person, there will still be people who won't take her voice seriously, who will write her off -- simply because of her gender." | | | Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy nipped rumors about a 2020 presidential bid in the bud. "I am not running for president. I am running for re-election to the Senate," Murphy said in the CBS News podcast "The Takeout," a clip of which was released on Wednesday. When pressed further, Murphy sought to clarify. "Am I ruling it out? Here we go, I'll rule it out for you." He said his "focus is fundamentally on the people of Connecticut and asking them for a second term." | | | Turkmenistan President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov gave Russian President Vladimir Putin this puppy for his birthday. We can't give you readers all puppies (we wish we could!). But as a belated birthday gift to us, can you tell other people you know to subscribe to The Point? | | We'd love to share our other newsletters with you. Follow this link for daily coverage of the world's top stories, savvy market insights, an insider's look into the media, and more. Our authors for The Point are Chris Cillizza and Saba Hamedy. Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris or Saba. Follow on Twitter: Chris and Saba. | | | Get the Nightcap, a comprehensive summary of the most important political news, delivered to your inbox daily. | | | | | |
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